Spring Training 2011

Well its that time again. Spring Training! Time to ask the questions and make the predictions for 2011. Its fun to do it before Spring Training even gets rolling. Makes everything much more of a crapshoot:

Who will being playing deep into October? Will the Phillies incredible rotation live up to expectations? (hint: yes if they remain healthy)? Will Ollie be good Ollie or bad Ollie. Will he even make the team?

Here are my 2011 Predictions:

AL East: Boston
AL Central: Minnesota
AL West: Oakland
Wild Card: Yankees

NL East: Phillie
NL Central: Milwaukee
NL West: San Fran
NL Wild Card: NY Mets

(Oakland and the Mets being my outlandish 1:100 guesses)

World Series: Milwaukee and Minnesota for the Great Lakes Battle
Milwaukee wins it all

Oliver Perez makes the team out of Spring Training as a reliever. Gets a few starts due to injuries. Johan Santana comes back on July 1. Ollie is cut on July 2. Milwaukee signs him on July 4 for the league minimum and has a huge second half - helping them win the series.

There are my silly predictions. I may get into some individual awards later in Spring training, but I doubt it. It's hard to keep interest in the blog when the subject is just so bad. (read: I have lost hope)

That said. I hope its a great 2011 season. I hope I continue to have reasons to post here, as you can see through the post history - there hasn't been much in the last 2 years.

Return from the DL - Questions

Well, it has been a while since I posted on this site, and frankly I do not have much to say right now. Ollie had a terrible start to the season - for what I believe are reasons that I have already touched on - poor mechanics and a move back to his wild delivery.

Although I still look for news on him every day, and I have not given up on him as a pitcher, I am starting to feel like he is not going to turn into what I thought he would be. I am close to moving on.

He is still only 28, he compares favorably to Randy Johnson at the same age, and blah blah blah. Only results will keep me as a fan at this point.

Good luck tonight Ollie. The Mets need you after 4 straight losses. I am not looking for a shutout. I know you will still be rusty. I don't even need a quality start. The Dodgers are a great team this year, and you will be dealing with all the booing assholes at Citi field. The Mets fans are starting to look wose than the stereotypical Yankee fan. Just show me an outing where you can get to 100 pitches, and throw more strikes than balls. If you can do that, I will continue to have hope.

2 More Horrible Starts and a Move to the Bullpen

I haven't been able to log in for about a week or so, and have not commented on the last 2 disasterous starts. I did watch one and listen to one on the radio - so I am sure once I start typing I will have plenty to say - but I am not going to do that right now.

I was hoping he would take a demotion to Buffalo - I have to go there for business, and it is much cheaper to see a game there then at Citi.

As an Ollie fan, my emotions move from anger, to frustration, to amusement. So I need to think this through more before a real comment.

I am really thinking about jumping from the bandwagon (which I might be the only person on right now) and moving on from my obsession with him and cut my losses. It isn't going to happen yet - but it could happen soon!

With Ollie's 3yr $36 million contract - I would like to make an offer to him if he ever reads this...

I have one of, if not the largest collection of your rookie cards. If you want to purchase it from me, I will gladly sell it all to you (except one copy of each card for my personal collection)

You can buy them for Beckett Book Value - and I will not even charge you shipping - or for the labor I put into assembling the collection over the years!

Start #3 - 4/21/09 - ND

At least Ollie escaped this one with a ND. I didn't get to post this on my normal morning after due to a business trip to NYC (in which I got into an accident and did a bunch of damage to my QX4 - but that is another story for another time and site)

I watched this game from home while playing with kids and putting them to bed, then with my wife. As usual, as soon as Ollie was off the books and the side retired in the 5th (after Casey Fossum walked in Ollie's 4th run) I changed the channel and ceased to have any interest in the game. Ollie wasn't gonna take the loss or get a win - so there was no point for me.

After Game 2, I pointed out that Ollie's pitching motion from the wind-up had reverted back to where it was last year be for the Wharthen fix. I honestly didn't get to see if any changes had been made during game 3. Ollie walked the first batter on 4 or 5 pitches and spent pretty much the rest of the night from the stretch.

Positive note from the game - I saw the TV register a few pitches at 93, and I think even 1 at 94. This shows that the arm strength might be coming back.

Negative note from the game - Just about everything else. Ollie was able to get through 4 innings with a pretty healthy looking line - even though he had no control. He was able to get a few K's and a bunch of pop-outs - but lets face it - if he had been pulled after 4 innings with a strong line, I still would have been negative. He had absolutely no control whatsoever. In his defense there were a bunch of pitches called for balls that I thought were real close. When you are as wild as Ollie is though you dont get the benefit of the doubt. If Greg Maddux had placed the balls in the same spot I bet he gets the call!

Game 3 final line, in STL
ND - 4.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 5 BB, 4 K

Year to Date Stats

3 GS (1-1) 7.80 ERA 15.0 IP, 15 K, 12 BB, 14 H, .250 BAA, 1.73 WHIP

Pretty ugly line so far - again reminding me of 2005 when he came back from the WBS I mean WBC

On a different note - Ollie has now had 4 of the runners he has left on base allowed to score. That does a pretty bad job the the ERA this time of year!

Start #2 - 4/15/09 - Win

I am not really buying into the old good Ollie, bad Ollie talk that is out there - but I find myself saying it more often these days - especially after start 1, where he was both in the same game. Last night would be considered 'pretty good' Ollie. Take a look at this article btw - http://www.sny.tv/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090406&content_id=1497522&oid=36018&vkey=9

I think it is pretty telling on how Ollie gets a bad rep!

Anyway, on to last night:

I am not sure why, but my schedule and Ollie's starts have not been meshing well this year. Wednesday night I am in a bowling league and did not get to see much of his starts - but as soon as the Yankee game ended, I was able to get them to switch the TV to the Mets.

I started watching in the second inning, and I think I can see one of the major problems Ollie has after only watching the first batter. Last season Wharthen allowed Ollie to pitch from whatever part of the rubber that he felt comfortable in, and then changed his windup motion to a rocking back and forth type routine. The thought is - get him to have a constant windup and delivery and if he wants to change angles - move his spot on the rubber instead changing his arm angle or other parts of his mechanics. The results were great. I am sure you can find a multitude of article out there describing it - heck I probably wrote about it here last year - but there has been another change and I think it might be effecting his control and velocity.

Last year, after the fix, Ollie had came to stop mid wind-up. He also rocked straight back and forth. this allowed him to have an explosive start to the delivery, and even though he was moving slower - all his weight was going back and forth and directed at the plate when he delivered. This gave him those extra 3-4 mph on the pitch - and gave us the mid-90's heat.

Last night, if you watch his motion - he was actually back to stepping back at an angle - with his back foot going towards third base - and there was no hitch in the delivery. Although it looks a little smoother - I think it is costing him control and velocity - thus only seeing him 90 or 91 on the gun when he bursts and him sitting at 88-89 for most of the night.

I really don't remember him throwing so many changeups in the past. I knew he had one, but I never saw him use it so much. Is this from the mentoring of Johan Santana? Ollie used to throw mainly fastball / slider, and he would occasionally mix in that 65mph slow curve that would keep the hitters off balance. I don't think I have seen him throw that pitch all year? Did he dump it? Having not been able to watch much - did I just miss it?

Anyway that's about all the comment I have on last nights game - as I didn't see it all - but the conclusion I can come to is - He was Good Ollie without his Good stuff - which is always encouraging. He also gets to go down in the Mets record books as the first Met pitcher to record a win at the new Citi Field ...

Game Line for last night: 6IP, 3 Hits, 2 Walks, 4K, 1ER, 1 Win (anytime you see a WHIP below 1.00 you have to be happy)

Season Stats

(1-1), 2 GS, 10.1 IP, 8 H, 9 ER, 7 BB, 11 K, 7.84 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 1 QS

Nothing to say..... Start #1 in 2009 4/9 - Loss

Well, I haven't posted on here in a while, and I honestly dont feel like starting now - but since Ollie had his first real start of the year yesterday, I figure I should make some comments....

Before we get to yesterdays debacle:

1. I am glad the Mets chose to resign him. I was rooting for the Mets or Yankees to sign him - mostly because I live in NY, and get to see every game on TV. I would have settled for the Braves as TBS does play a lot of games - but if he went to the West Coast I would never get to see his entertaining brand of baseball. Most people hate him because of the inconsistancy - although I want him to show the Cy Young Award talent that he has, and allow my investment in some of his cardboard to payoff - part of me loves the ups and downs. You never know what you are gonna get and it entertains me.

2. Of all the players in baseball - I think the WBC has hurt Mr. Perez the most. He was in the last 'showcase' of international talent in the Spring of 2005 - right after his brilliant 2004 and it ruined him for all of 05 and 06. He had pretty good years in 07 and 08 and now in 09 he pitches in the WBC again and he falls apart. I say VOTE NO OLLIE IN WBC 2013!!!!!!

As far as yesterdays game goes - I was not able to watch the game as I was traveling for business, but was able to listen in the car. I was driving from Albany to Westchester, listening on 660am, and watching the gamecast on my Blackberry. The gamecast is nice because you can see where the pitches were exactly, the speed, and the type of pitch. The radio guys are great - but they never talk about the things I like to see when I listen/watch Ollie pitch. The first main issue is obvious:

Ollie's velocity is way down right now. Most people would bring up the control and the 5 walks - but that is not concerning to me. Ollie thrives on not letting the hitters hit the ball. If he leads the league in walks while he allows 0.8 or 0.9 hits per inning (or better) - It really isn't all that bad. BUT when his velocity is down - it takes that effect of the movement away and he becomes hittable. The gamecast from mlb.com had several of his pitches hitting 90 and 91, but hovering at 88 and 89. The radio guys said he never hit above 88, and he was hovering around 85-86. Thats a big difference. I think mlb.com might have been a little more accurate because the did mention hearing some pop in the catcher mitt - but hey you never know.

I believe that he will get his arm in shape, and the velocity will be back to hovering at 90-91 with occational bursts of 94-95 like he always has done in the past.

Anyway - the first inning was a 10 pitch inning - with a K - and I thought to myself - this is going to be a good outing. Then in the second inning he struk out the side. I gotta tell you I started to get excited. I started thinking to myself - well there have been 2 non-K outs so he maxes out at 25 for the game.

Then the wheels fell off. He gave up a walk to the number 7 hitter. Its always a mistake when you let the lead-off man on for any pitcher - but for Ollie it can spell major trouble. This made him shift from the nice rocking motion he had going to the stretch - and the next couple of pitches were WAY off. He ended up battling through the AB and got another K. My confidence started to come back. Arroyo made a pretty good bunt, that Ollie fielded and almost threw into RF but was saved by a long stretch from Cora who was covering first. This play amped Ollie up, and again his control suffered. When McDonald came up with runners on first and second Ollie battled the account to 2-2. He threw a slider that the gamecast showed in the strikezone, and the radio guys thought was a strike ... but the unp didn't see it that way. With a full count the batter hit a RBI single, bringing up Votto. I really think that this was the end for Ollie. He should have been out of the jam giving up no runs - but now he had given up a run, had almost thrown one into CF and was bleeding pitch count. Enter Joey Votto and with the 0-1 Ollie hung a slider that from the way the radio announced it, might still be rising and on its way out of the solor system.

I pretty much wanted to turn of the radio right then and forget that he was pitching, but I couldn't bring myself to do it. I listened for every pitch he threw and turned the game off when he was yanked in the 5th.

Ollie - if for some reason you ever read this - work with Johan. Work with Warthen. Get you motion down pat - if you can do that the world is your oyster. If not you will be sentanced to many more days of listening to the NY Media then you will get an all-expense paid trip to Kansas City in the off-season for some young minor leaguer. And I can't deal with that because I am so entertained watching you pitch!

Season stats after game#1



.......... IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA
Perez (L, 0-1) 4.1 5 8 8 5 7 1 16.62

metsblog comments thread - Should the Mets sign Ollie?

Since it is so hard to follow older comments on metsblog.com I thought I would share a bit from the comments on the Oliver Perez post Matt Cerrone made earlier today. Matt basically said to stay away from Ollie, and obviously I disagree. The posters in the comments seem to agree with him - while the respondants to his polls disagree saying the mets should give him 4 years at 12 per ... http://www.metsblog.com/2009/01/15/opinion-the-basket-solution/

gutterkizmet says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:15 am
So when the mets don’t sign Ollie, and he matures this year as predicted, and contends for the cy young, wins 20 games with more K’s than IP and an ERA around 2.90 and a WHIP around 1.20. What are all you people going to say - since it happens in Dodger Blue instead of Met Blue and Orange?
It will be why was Wilpon so cheap not to sign hum at $13mil per? You will all freak out more than you do over Kazmir, and based on potential - Ollie is better than Kazmir. Kazmir has just put it together a little faster.
You watch - the Mets won’t sign Ollie, and by June everyone on this board will be raising he_ll and complaining that the team was cheap - when you all lobbied agaiunst the signing in the first place.
Reply

mikey_FF says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:17 am
Ollie is one of my favorites but I don’t for a second think he’ll ever win a cy young or 20 games. As much as I like the guy … he’s got a million dollar arm and a 10 cent head. He’s just not cerebral enough to reach his full potential.
Reply

gutterkizmet says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:19 am
BTW - I am basing Ollies maturation on a few things. First he is 27 - still younger than Randy Johnson was when he matured from a walk machine to one of the best ever (not that Ollie will turn into that) and the fact that he got married this offseason. I don’t know about you, but my life changed dramatically when I got married - and it was all mindset.
Reply

mikey_FF says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:25 am
That is possible but I just don’t think he’s got a high baseball IQ. The ones who are really great have a great mental approach, especially pitchers. Some hall of fame pitchers did what they did with lesser “stuff” just because they were more cerebral.
I just don’t think Ollie getting married or getting a little older will make him be able to use his brain better. He kind of is what he is.
Reply

kingman 26 says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:29 am
I so agree with you gutter. Ollie is about to enter his prime. He has great stuff. He is, to me, part of the core of this group since 2006. He belongs with this group and is young and talented and clearly can deal with NY. And overall, he has been pretty to very good the last two years. And again, he is still young, is not an aging guy, is not injury prone, and is not fat and satisfied yet having made tens of millions and won a ring.
And getting married may indeed have gigantic positive effects on Ollie’s maturity and consistency.
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sabermetrician says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:24 am
Who’s predicting that Ollie blossoms this year, you?

2009 Projections from reputable sources:
Zips: ERA 4.83, ERA+ 89, Innings 164, W/L 9-10
CHONE: ERA 4.72, Innings 166, W/L 9-10
Marcel: ERA 4.22, Innings 175, W/L 10-9
James: ERA 4.53, Innings 204, W/L 11-12
Reply

kingman 26 says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:30 am
Do you have any idea whatsoever how utterly meaningless these projections you cite are?
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sabermetrician says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:34 am
You’re kidding right? These are the most accurate projection systems available (aside from PECOTA which hasn’t been released yet). These are actually quite accurate, year in, year out.
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gutterkizmet says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:39 am
Sorry but those predictions are bogus for a player like Ollie - and are also bogus for just about any pitcher outside of a pitcher who has been consistant for many years. For young players still on the upside they are always 100% meaningless. If they were so good then salaries would be based on them. If they were so good they would never need to play the games.
Also - for hitters they are probably pretty accurate as well. But again for people who have been in the league for 10+ years and are no longer improving.
Ollie will put it together and break out. The question is if it will be this year or the following.

kingman 26 says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:41 am
No, of course I am not kidding. These projections can be right, wrong, or indifferent. They mean ZERO in terms of what Ollie will or will not do next year.
Ollie is a 27 year old with a checkered career, who has great stuff, who has the ability to pitch very well in NY, and, as another poster wisely pointed out, just got married, which could indeed affect his mental outlook tremendously. As could his first really huge contract.
I understand the whole sabermetrics thing, and I don’t use BA and W-L to judge players, but to propose that these projections have absolutely any meaning whatsoever in terms of what a 27-year-old pitcher with great stuff will do next year is just silly, and is the negative, over-the-top, side of sabermetrics.
In my opinion.

16dwight16 says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:36 am
“Do you have any idea whatsoever how utterly meaningless these projections you cite are?”
LOL…these projections are certainly more accurate than you.
Reply

kingman 26 says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:44 am
What kind of projections do you think these folks would have made for Randy Johnson at age 27? And how right would they have been?
Gutter said it much better than I did. Projections like this are so bogus for a 27 year old pitcher with such an up and down career.
sabermetrician says:
January 15, 2009 at 10:02 am
They would have made better projections for Randy Johnson than Ollie. These are based on similarities going back to the minors and every level. You really need to look at how accurate they are.

MudvilleNine says:
January 15, 2009 at 10:56 am
At the age of 27 Randy Johnson was just finishing his second full year in the majors. Ollie has had 6.5 years in the majors. You guys really have to stop the “he’s young” stuff. He’s young if he’s 27 and only been in the league 2 to 3 years, not 6.5.Now I’m not saying these prediction numbers are right but the guy was replying to someone who says Ollie will win 20 games with a sub 3 era and all this other stuff based on that he’s gotten married. I think I’d go with the prediction based on numbers than the one based on the married mind of a guy who throws sidearm and eephus pitches whenever he gets bored on the mound.
agetting says:

January 15, 2009 at 9:18 am
First of all Ollie is NO Kazmir. Second of all we should have traded Church Kunz and a prospect for Dye. Third of all we should be signing Sheets
Reply

sabermetrician says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:19 am
Agree that Ollie is no Kazmir (although will last longer).Agree with the trade.Agree with Sheets signing.
Reply

gutterkizmet says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:27 am
I gotta disagree. Basball reference actually matches them as very similar. I would argue that Ollie will play for longer and be much better overall thanks to Kazmirs injuries.
Also baseball reference.com has the most similar pitcher to Ollie bu the end of Age 26 as besing Mark Langston. (by 25 was Frank Viola, 24 was Scott Olsen, 23 was Sandy Koufax, 22 was Scott Kazmir)
Sll some pretty good names. Since Langston is the most recent most similar lets see what he did after he was age 27: 4 All-star appearances, Many votes in the Cy Young (although never won it) Led the league in IP and K several times and was near the top in ERA - when although he pitched for 5 years before he was 26 he only showed promise. I am not saying that L:angston was a HOFer and I am not saying that Ollie is Langston - but their careers look pretty similar!
Reply

sabermetrician says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:38 am
This is actually really good work. Thanks for the info.
Reply

gutterkizmet says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:48 am
by the way to clarify my projection post - I do believe in sabermetric projections most of the time - just not with an up and down youngster. Or any young player for that matter. The projections really only take into consideration the past - not potential or outside factors.
Reply

sabermetrician says:
January 15, 2009 at 10:03 am
You make a fair point. I just don’t see Ollie settling down all of a sudden. It’s a fair argument though.

gutterkizmet says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:55 am
Randy Johnsons Walk totals by age:
25 - 96 BB
26 - 120 BB
27 - 152 BB
28 - 144 BB

When he was 28 he spent most of the offseason working with Nolan Ryan (you can look into archives and read articles about it) and that is when he turned the corner and turned into a monster.
Again, I am not saying that Ollie is Randy Johnson, but there are many similarities. In fact both Barry Bonds and Chipper Jones have some quotes comparing the 2 - take a look at the back of Ollies 2006 Topps traded card (the first with him in a mets uniform) and read the quote from Chipper:
“He’s the closest thing to Randy Johnson you’ll see,” Chipper Jones once said of Perez.
Reply

gutterkizmet says:
January 15, 2009 at 10:23 am
Some more Randy Johnson numbers by age:
Age * BB * WHIP *K/9 (not gonna use totals as pitchers were used differently 20 years ago)

24 - Only 4 Games
25 - 96 BB * 1.51 WHIP * 7.2 K/9
26 - 120 BB * 1.33 WHIP * 7.9K/9
27 - 152 BB * 1.505 WHIP * 10.2 K/9
28 - 144 BB * 1.41 WHIP * 10.31 K/9
29 - 99 BB * 1.11 WHIP * 10.85 K/9
30 - 72 BB * 1.18 WHIP * 10.6 K/9

Here is Ollie:
20 - 48 BB * 1.32 WHIP * 9.4 K/9
21 - 77 BB * 1.62 WHIP * 10.01 K/9
22 - 81 BB * 1.15 WHIP * 10.98 K/9
23 - 70 BB * 1.67 WHIP * 8.4 K/9
24 - 68 BB * 1.74 WHIP * 8.14 K/9
25 - 79 BB * 1.31 WHIP * 8.85 K/9
26 - 105 BB * 1.40 WHIP * 8.35 K/9

So no - Ollie does not really compare with Randy Johnson - as Ollie WHIP in 06/06 his 2 bad years are much worse that RJ’s, but really RJ was in the minors then. Ollies numbers are actually better than RJ through age 26.

But still there is at least a basic comparison there based on the quotes from Bonds and Jones (and others)

This is why the SABERmetric predictions hold no water in this case. If Ollie can have an event to mature him - he will be an All-Star and perennial Cy Young candidate. If he doesn’t mature he will be a just above league average pitcher, and a solid #3-4 guy with flashes of ACE/#2.
Maybe the Rangers should sign him and hive him work with Ryan like RJ did.
Reply

What do you think? Any comments?

Monthly Post

Here it is a month later, and still no posts. I guess there just hasn't been much to talk about.


The Mets bullpen sucks. Ollie hasn't been that dominant since shaving the beard.


But just in case the Mets need any more reason to callapse again this year, I was selected to buy NLDS tickets. I was selected for NLCS tickets last year and look where that got me!!!

Pitcher of the Second Half - as of August18

I think this debate is over before it even begins ... as CC Sabathia has pretty much torn through the NL since moving to Milwaukee.

But I guess I would love to see some numbers of who in MLB have been the best pitchers in the second half (not since the all-star break, but after most teams hit 81 games. Since I am in NY and I have a NY Bias I will use the Yankees schedule and use the date that they played their 81st game as the starting point for this conversation: The Yankees Played their 81st game of the season on June 28th - so I will use that day as the start of the second half.

I feel that Wins and Losses are irrelavent as they have more to do with run support and how will the opposing pitcher pitches - so they are out of my equation. Here is how I score the pitchers:

((3 x IP) + K - BB - H - ER)

A few thoughts:

Only Roy Halladay is on the list from AL

Tim Lincecum not only had a great first half, but is kicking ass in the second half too. He is my pick for NL Cy Young even though only Brandon Webb will probably eclipse the 20 win mark.

The Mets have 2 pitchers on the list in Santana and Perez. They were my preseason picks for NL Cy Young - and the second half has really shown they have the ability. It makes me thiunk back to good old 2004 when these 2 were the talk of baseball as young pitchers. Santana has lived up to the hype. Although I still think I am the biggest Ollie fan out there, I am not ready to say he has performed - but by the looks of things he is on his way.

Comparing Oliver Perez to the NL Average Starter before the All-Star Break

About a week ago I did an analysis on Ollie's first half, and compared it to the league average. The numbers I pulled from were from ESPN's league totals section. I do not think it fairly represents 'average though' as it includes all the relievers, the rookies who came up for one start ... etc. So I decided to redo the numbers using only the pitchers who currently qualify for the league ERA title. I figured this would be the list of full time starters for at least most of the season. This should be a more accurate view of how he has compared to an average national league starter before the all-str break in 2008:

As you can see from the numbers above, the comparison to the actual average of the real full time starters does not paint as good of a picture as the comparison to the league as a whole.

Now the change in Ollies mechanics may have helped him turn the corner as his last 3 starts have been much better. Lets look at the numbers:

Games Started - Right on key with average
IP and IP/Start - Ollie had 2 starts that bring his average way down, but even without those his longevity in each game is a major concern so far.
W/L and Win% - His winning percentage is a little better than average, but obviously a 2 or 3 starter should be better here. Wins and losses are probably the most useless stat in comparing pitchers as it depends on so many factors ... run support, bullpen ... etc.

The rest of the stats with the exception of Hits/9 and K/9 he is well below average. These numbers are fairly startling. (I did think the unearned runs per 9 would be much worse)

All-in-all it really looks like Ollie has been a below average pitcher so far this year. If the Mets want to make it to the post season they will need Ollie to continue what he has shown in his last 3 starts (minus the walks in the last start).

Good luck in the second half.