ESPN.COM 2008 Player Predictions and Oliver Perez

Is it just me or does ESPN's rating system really suck. They are so far off on so many players it isn't funny. Especially players on the rise, or on the downside of their careers (it isn't hard to predict that Pujols will be good.) I was glancing through ESPN.com's FLB Projections for 2008. I am not sure what system they use to predict the stats for 2008, but I do not really understand how they are so low on Oliver. They mark him as the #55 fantasy starter for 2008. I clearly understand he is not top 20 - but I think #55 is pretty low.

Lets look at some of the other pitchers they have in the same range:

#47 - Bronson Arroyo - they predict 11 wins, and a K/9 ratio of 6.59 and a K/BB ratio of 2.48

#50 - Curt Schilling - umm they predict 0 appearances, and still put him in the top 50. That is pretty bold!

#51 - Zach Grienke - their numbers are off because the system they use pretty much has him as a reliver. I agree with him being at #51 - but Ollie should be way ahead. they say: There will be pressure, but if the kid can hold up, 12 wins, an ERA of about 4.00 and better than seven strikeouts per nine innings are possible.. If Ollie has these numbers it would be a HUGE dissapointment.

Here are the numbers they predict for Oliver Perez:

12 Wins - on this team, pitching against the other teams #3 or #4 ... come on he should easily have 15 like last year or much better

178 IP - this falls in line with what he did last year, but it was only that low due to 3 missed starts in the middle of the year. I think this is probably right, but if he has no injuries he should get closer to the 196 he threw in 2004, and probably reach 200 for the first time.

170 K - Last year was really the first year he had below 1K/1IP and it wasn't that far off with 174K in 177IP. If anything he should be back to where he was ... I see 210K in 200IP or even better.

K/BB - they predict 1.89. Are you serious? I know he has the tendancy to be wild and lose a little mental control - but why is this so far blow his career total? Last year he was 2.20 - but most of his walks came in just a couple outings. How many 0 and 1 walk outings did he have last year? Just as many as he had 4+ walk games ... (6 games with 0 walks, 1 game with 1 walk vs. 7 games with 4+ walks) His career is 1.96K/BB and that includes the horid 2005 and 2006 seasons. So ESPN thinks that this season will be a below average year for him in control? They think that the improvements he made last year were a fluke? WOW!

HR/9 - they predict 1.37 up from last years 1.12. Come on now. Yes he has a tendancy to give up the long ball - but that is mostly because he is a fly ball pitcher. He pitches half his games at Shea. Why would he regress? BTW his career numbers are 1.36HR/9. So again they think that this year will be worse than his career numbers. I don't see it. Remember he is still only 26. I don't think he is past his prime and ready to regress.

ERA - they predict 4.40. Considering his career ERA is 4.43 I can see them making this prediction. It could be right on - but with him pitching in the NL, with Rick Peterson helping, with Shea stadium helping, and the fact that he has veteran leadership helping him I can see him having much of a fall off from last years 3.56. I have already made my predictions on this site, and if you click on the predictions lable you can easily find what I wrote - but even if he has a "bad year" I can not see any worse than 3.99.

WHIP - They say 1.43. Again his career is 1.43 - so I guess they think he has made no improvements and is either a the peak of his career or the downside at age 26.

After looking at these statistics more for this post - I guess whoever did the numbers just looked at career numbers not trends or any other real analysis. I am too poor to pay for a lot of the analysis sites - if anyone wants to share Ollies PECOTA numbers or other predictions I would love to see it. I keep waiting for Amazin' Avenue to do their community predictions for Ollie.