Baseball Cards and my Fantasy Take on the Players

One of my goals of starting this site was to display some of my cards, and to see if anyone has any interest in trading or purchasing any of them. If there is any interest I will put them up on eBay. For the next few posts I will be displaying some cards of some players, and giving my fantasy take on the players displayed.

2004 Upper Deck Etchings - Etched in time Auto's
Joe Mauer
Carlos Zambrano



Joe Mauer, Catcher for the Twins
Joe will be THE elite catcher in baseball if he can stay healthy. One has to wonder when he will be moved from being a catcher to either DH or to 1B. He can flat out rake - and his injuries have been with his knees. Seems to me like he should stop catching ... DUH! I love that he can play catcher on my fantasy team and I would hate for him to lose the position eligibility - but it has to be done soon. Take him in round 3 if he is still available!

Carlos Zambrano, Pitcher for the Cubs
Is it just me, or has he sucked every April for the last few years, yet he always ends up with some of the best fantasy numbers a manager can ask for. I say don't pick him in the first few rounds. Someone will take him in rounds 2-3. When he has his bad April like he always does you can grab him cheap for trade. I have done it many times and it always works like a charm!

Ollie Wins His Arbitration Case

Well according to SI.com and Metsblog.com Ollie has won is arbitration case. I really didn't think he would win after what happened with Mr. Wang. Wang has clearly shown more success over the last 2 years. He doesn't have the exciting stats that Ollie has, nor the service time - but his success is among the best in baseball. Ollie does have a higher ceiling too, but I thought only results counted - and Wangs win total is impressive.

Here is my post on metsblog.com comments on the item. For some reason not all my posts show up on the site:

Hopefully winning his case will make him happy ... and the thought of a payday in 2009 will give him the motivation to stay focused this year.

A focused Ollie plus an A+ slider plus an A fastball plus a B+ slow curve + a B change + mentoring of Pedro + mentoring of Johan + Rick Peterson + NL Hitters + Shea Stadium + Contract year + pitching against other teams 3,4, and 5 starters ...
Equals

CY YOUNG FOR OLLIE IN 2008

(then probably Yankees in 2009 due to their penchant for grabbing players that excel against them)
http://oliverperezfan.blogspot.com

ESPN.COM 2008 Player Predictions and Oliver Perez

Is it just me or does ESPN's rating system really suck. They are so far off on so many players it isn't funny. Especially players on the rise, or on the downside of their careers (it isn't hard to predict that Pujols will be good.) I was glancing through ESPN.com's FLB Projections for 2008. I am not sure what system they use to predict the stats for 2008, but I do not really understand how they are so low on Oliver. They mark him as the #55 fantasy starter for 2008. I clearly understand he is not top 20 - but I think #55 is pretty low.

Lets look at some of the other pitchers they have in the same range:

#47 - Bronson Arroyo - they predict 11 wins, and a K/9 ratio of 6.59 and a K/BB ratio of 2.48

#50 - Curt Schilling - umm they predict 0 appearances, and still put him in the top 50. That is pretty bold!

#51 - Zach Grienke - their numbers are off because the system they use pretty much has him as a reliver. I agree with him being at #51 - but Ollie should be way ahead. they say: There will be pressure, but if the kid can hold up, 12 wins, an ERA of about 4.00 and better than seven strikeouts per nine innings are possible.. If Ollie has these numbers it would be a HUGE dissapointment.

Here are the numbers they predict for Oliver Perez:

12 Wins - on this team, pitching against the other teams #3 or #4 ... come on he should easily have 15 like last year or much better

178 IP - this falls in line with what he did last year, but it was only that low due to 3 missed starts in the middle of the year. I think this is probably right, but if he has no injuries he should get closer to the 196 he threw in 2004, and probably reach 200 for the first time.

170 K - Last year was really the first year he had below 1K/1IP and it wasn't that far off with 174K in 177IP. If anything he should be back to where he was ... I see 210K in 200IP or even better.

K/BB - they predict 1.89. Are you serious? I know he has the tendancy to be wild and lose a little mental control - but why is this so far blow his career total? Last year he was 2.20 - but most of his walks came in just a couple outings. How many 0 and 1 walk outings did he have last year? Just as many as he had 4+ walk games ... (6 games with 0 walks, 1 game with 1 walk vs. 7 games with 4+ walks) His career is 1.96K/BB and that includes the horid 2005 and 2006 seasons. So ESPN thinks that this season will be a below average year for him in control? They think that the improvements he made last year were a fluke? WOW!

HR/9 - they predict 1.37 up from last years 1.12. Come on now. Yes he has a tendancy to give up the long ball - but that is mostly because he is a fly ball pitcher. He pitches half his games at Shea. Why would he regress? BTW his career numbers are 1.36HR/9. So again they think that this year will be worse than his career numbers. I don't see it. Remember he is still only 26. I don't think he is past his prime and ready to regress.

ERA - they predict 4.40. Considering his career ERA is 4.43 I can see them making this prediction. It could be right on - but with him pitching in the NL, with Rick Peterson helping, with Shea stadium helping, and the fact that he has veteran leadership helping him I can see him having much of a fall off from last years 3.56. I have already made my predictions on this site, and if you click on the predictions lable you can easily find what I wrote - but even if he has a "bad year" I can not see any worse than 3.99.

WHIP - They say 1.43. Again his career is 1.43 - so I guess they think he has made no improvements and is either a the peak of his career or the downside at age 26.

After looking at these statistics more for this post - I guess whoever did the numbers just looked at career numbers not trends or any other real analysis. I am too poor to pay for a lot of the analysis sites - if anyone wants to share Ollies PECOTA numbers or other predictions I would love to see it. I keep waiting for Amazin' Avenue to do their community predictions for Ollie.

How Old is El Duque

Danish scientists have figured out how to tell how old someone is by the carbon isotopes in your eyes. They say it is accurate within a year. Some say he is 33, some say 37 ... I think he is more likely 47! Lets see what the Danes have to say!!!!!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080219/sc_nm/eyes_birth_dc

Kyle Kendrick of the Phillies Traded to Japan

Kendrick was in "shock" he was traded for a relatively unknown. He thought the Phillies needed him this year - and that he was going to become a MLB star ... Its too bad that he doesn't yet realize that no one can ever be a HUGE star playing in Philidelphia. Even their biggest stars get little to no recognition on the big stage. They have MVP winners in Rollins and Howard, and that Utley guy is one of the best second basemen in the game - but outside of the Fantasy world and Phili - no one cares. He will gain more national recognition and endorsement money playing in Japan. (Companies don't shell out money to players who play for the team with the most losses of any professional sports team in history)

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/rumors/post/-Trade-to-Japan-leaves-Kendrick-in-shock?urn=mlb%2C67246

(Yes I am aware it was a joke played on him - pretty funny though)

Tom Glavine is Happy to be back on the Braves

That was the headline on ESPN.com a day or so ago. It should have read:

Mets fans rejoice!

There were a lot of fans who loved Glavine on the Mets before the epic loss he threw during the last game of last season. I have always disliked Glavine - just as most Met fans do now. He was an Atlanta Brave to me, and will always be a Brave - and I became a baseball fanatic when the Braves were the team to hate.

So here's to you ... BUH BYE GLAVINE ... Hello Johan.

Lazy Me ... AAAAh Spring

Pitchers and Catchers have reported

Sandbox.com has opened its baseball doors

I am traveling full tilt for work.

I have a bunch of great ideas for this coming season. I cant wait.

For now lets just hope that Ollies arbitration case goes well. I would hate to see him leave NY as a free agent this off-season. It will make it infintately harder to watch his outings.

Joba Rules

Speaking of young powerfull arms ... I am really torn on what to think on Joba Chamberlain.

The Yankees still don't know what they will do with him in 2008. Will he be the set-up man for Rivera and be groomed for the closer role - just like they did with Rivera when John Wetland was the Yankee Closer? Joba has been a starter for his college and minor league career, and the Yankees have said that since he has so many plus pitches - they feel he will be a front line starter.

By looking at his stats though college and the minors, I have to think his incredible start was an abberation. Yes he can blow people away ... but ... I don't see how you can have average minor league numbers, and blow major league hitters away the way he did. The AL will figure him out this season, and his numbers should regress to the mean. That mean might be real good, but definately not what he did in 2007.

Here is my prediction for 2008:

He is a starter for the entire year, but the Yankees monitor his IP and Starts very closely.

He ends 15-6 with a 3.65 ERA, racks up 182 K's in 161.2 IP and has a WHIP of 1.14

Thats a great line for a youngster in the AL, but definately not as good as most Yankee fans think he will have. I always hear people predicting an ERA in the low 1's and like 5 K's per IP, and 2 Cy Young awards in the same year. It just wont happen!

The Effect of Veteran Leadership

One of the things I have spoken about in regards to Perez for the last few years, is the lack of coaching he had on the Pirates. And I am not talking about the pitching coach in Pittsburgh, because I know nothing about him. For all I know he is the best coach in the history of baseball.

When Perez was on the Pirates, he was in his early 20's, and had just completed one of the best seasons a 23 year old could ask for. He led the league in K/9, was near the top in ERA, and had the likes of Barry Bonds and Chipper Jones singing his praises. I don't know about you - but when I was 23 - I didn't listen well to authority figures.

What Perez needed, was exactly what he didn't have. He went into 2005 as the ace of the staff at 24. He was the veteran - pitching with the Snell, Fogg, and Wells, and the rookies. (Snell was a rookie then too.) His mechanics and work ethic suffered. His mental game fell apart. He needed guidance, and beyond the coaching staff - he had no one to give it to him.

Fast forward a year and a half. Perez is given up on by the Pirates, and was basically a throw in contained in a deal for Roberto Hernandez to get the deal done. The Pirates wanted to shed payroll in Bert, and get a promising young outfielder in Xavier Nady. The Mets desperately needed a reliever to fill in for the injured Duaner Sanchez.

Oliver was now in an environment with the likes of Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez, and Orlando Hernandez to help mentor him to better things.

Now he gets to hear the input of another great Hispanic pitcher with Johan Santana. Both are lefty, and have great stuff.

I really do think that this will bode real well for Ollie in 2008 and beyond!

Johan Santana Trade and the Effect on Oliver Perez

I have been thinking about this for a bit, and I am not quite sure what to think. I would love to hear any comments - if so - please post in the comments, or e-mail me at oliverperezfan@gmail.com.

Baseball Card Values and stats changes

Pitching in NY gives him a visibility boost, and allows more fans to follow him, thus helping his values, however pitching in the #3 or #4 slot definately makes him a less visible star.

Pitching against the other teams #3 or #4 should help his wins totals, and increase his chances at awards, which should also help.

Having another power pitching lefty in the rotation could hurt though. Both pitchers have a similar style. Strike em out, fast ball, fly ball. I think the difference is the out pitch. While Johan has one of if not the best changeup in the game, Ollie relies on an unhittable slider.

My prediction for Ollie in 2008 stays the same - just the award is different.

Johan Santana wins the Cy Young, Peavy comes in second, and Ollie comes in a distant third.


The Mets rotation this year 1-4 could have one of the best stat lines we have seen in a long long time.

1. Johan Santana
2. Pedro Martinez
3. Oliver Perez
4. John Maine
5. Orlando Hernandez / Mike Pelfrey / Some other pickup

I wonder what the record for most K's in a season by a pitching staff is? The Mets will rack em up this year!