Joba Rules

Speaking of young powerfull arms ... I am really torn on what to think on Joba Chamberlain.

The Yankees still don't know what they will do with him in 2008. Will he be the set-up man for Rivera and be groomed for the closer role - just like they did with Rivera when John Wetland was the Yankee Closer? Joba has been a starter for his college and minor league career, and the Yankees have said that since he has so many plus pitches - they feel he will be a front line starter.

By looking at his stats though college and the minors, I have to think his incredible start was an abberation. Yes he can blow people away ... but ... I don't see how you can have average minor league numbers, and blow major league hitters away the way he did. The AL will figure him out this season, and his numbers should regress to the mean. That mean might be real good, but definately not what he did in 2007.

Here is my prediction for 2008:

He is a starter for the entire year, but the Yankees monitor his IP and Starts very closely.

He ends 15-6 with a 3.65 ERA, racks up 182 K's in 161.2 IP and has a WHIP of 1.14

Thats a great line for a youngster in the AL, but definately not as good as most Yankee fans think he will have. I always hear people predicting an ERA in the low 1's and like 5 K's per IP, and 2 Cy Young awards in the same year. It just wont happen!

The Effect of Veteran Leadership

One of the things I have spoken about in regards to Perez for the last few years, is the lack of coaching he had on the Pirates. And I am not talking about the pitching coach in Pittsburgh, because I know nothing about him. For all I know he is the best coach in the history of baseball.

When Perez was on the Pirates, he was in his early 20's, and had just completed one of the best seasons a 23 year old could ask for. He led the league in K/9, was near the top in ERA, and had the likes of Barry Bonds and Chipper Jones singing his praises. I don't know about you - but when I was 23 - I didn't listen well to authority figures.

What Perez needed, was exactly what he didn't have. He went into 2005 as the ace of the staff at 24. He was the veteran - pitching with the Snell, Fogg, and Wells, and the rookies. (Snell was a rookie then too.) His mechanics and work ethic suffered. His mental game fell apart. He needed guidance, and beyond the coaching staff - he had no one to give it to him.

Fast forward a year and a half. Perez is given up on by the Pirates, and was basically a throw in contained in a deal for Roberto Hernandez to get the deal done. The Pirates wanted to shed payroll in Bert, and get a promising young outfielder in Xavier Nady. The Mets desperately needed a reliever to fill in for the injured Duaner Sanchez.

Oliver was now in an environment with the likes of Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez, and Orlando Hernandez to help mentor him to better things.

Now he gets to hear the input of another great Hispanic pitcher with Johan Santana. Both are lefty, and have great stuff.

I really do think that this will bode real well for Ollie in 2008 and beyond!

Johan Santana Trade and the Effect on Oliver Perez

I have been thinking about this for a bit, and I am not quite sure what to think. I would love to hear any comments - if so - please post in the comments, or e-mail me at oliverperezfan@gmail.com.

Baseball Card Values and stats changes

Pitching in NY gives him a visibility boost, and allows more fans to follow him, thus helping his values, however pitching in the #3 or #4 slot definately makes him a less visible star.

Pitching against the other teams #3 or #4 should help his wins totals, and increase his chances at awards, which should also help.

Having another power pitching lefty in the rotation could hurt though. Both pitchers have a similar style. Strike em out, fast ball, fly ball. I think the difference is the out pitch. While Johan has one of if not the best changeup in the game, Ollie relies on an unhittable slider.

My prediction for Ollie in 2008 stays the same - just the award is different.

Johan Santana wins the Cy Young, Peavy comes in second, and Ollie comes in a distant third.


The Mets rotation this year 1-4 could have one of the best stat lines we have seen in a long long time.

1. Johan Santana
2. Pedro Martinez
3. Oliver Perez
4. John Maine
5. Orlando Hernandez / Mike Pelfrey / Some other pickup

I wonder what the record for most K's in a season by a pitching staff is? The Mets will rack em up this year!