metsblog comments thread - Should the Mets sign Ollie?

Since it is so hard to follow older comments on metsblog.com I thought I would share a bit from the comments on the Oliver Perez post Matt Cerrone made earlier today. Matt basically said to stay away from Ollie, and obviously I disagree. The posters in the comments seem to agree with him - while the respondants to his polls disagree saying the mets should give him 4 years at 12 per ... http://www.metsblog.com/2009/01/15/opinion-the-basket-solution/

gutterkizmet says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:15 am
So when the mets don’t sign Ollie, and he matures this year as predicted, and contends for the cy young, wins 20 games with more K’s than IP and an ERA around 2.90 and a WHIP around 1.20. What are all you people going to say - since it happens in Dodger Blue instead of Met Blue and Orange?
It will be why was Wilpon so cheap not to sign hum at $13mil per? You will all freak out more than you do over Kazmir, and based on potential - Ollie is better than Kazmir. Kazmir has just put it together a little faster.
You watch - the Mets won’t sign Ollie, and by June everyone on this board will be raising he_ll and complaining that the team was cheap - when you all lobbied agaiunst the signing in the first place.
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mikey_FF says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:17 am
Ollie is one of my favorites but I don’t for a second think he’ll ever win a cy young or 20 games. As much as I like the guy … he’s got a million dollar arm and a 10 cent head. He’s just not cerebral enough to reach his full potential.
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gutterkizmet says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:19 am
BTW - I am basing Ollies maturation on a few things. First he is 27 - still younger than Randy Johnson was when he matured from a walk machine to one of the best ever (not that Ollie will turn into that) and the fact that he got married this offseason. I don’t know about you, but my life changed dramatically when I got married - and it was all mindset.
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mikey_FF says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:25 am
That is possible but I just don’t think he’s got a high baseball IQ. The ones who are really great have a great mental approach, especially pitchers. Some hall of fame pitchers did what they did with lesser “stuff” just because they were more cerebral.
I just don’t think Ollie getting married or getting a little older will make him be able to use his brain better. He kind of is what he is.
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kingman 26 says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:29 am
I so agree with you gutter. Ollie is about to enter his prime. He has great stuff. He is, to me, part of the core of this group since 2006. He belongs with this group and is young and talented and clearly can deal with NY. And overall, he has been pretty to very good the last two years. And again, he is still young, is not an aging guy, is not injury prone, and is not fat and satisfied yet having made tens of millions and won a ring.
And getting married may indeed have gigantic positive effects on Ollie’s maturity and consistency.
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sabermetrician says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:24 am
Who’s predicting that Ollie blossoms this year, you?

2009 Projections from reputable sources:
Zips: ERA 4.83, ERA+ 89, Innings 164, W/L 9-10
CHONE: ERA 4.72, Innings 166, W/L 9-10
Marcel: ERA 4.22, Innings 175, W/L 10-9
James: ERA 4.53, Innings 204, W/L 11-12
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kingman 26 says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:30 am
Do you have any idea whatsoever how utterly meaningless these projections you cite are?
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sabermetrician says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:34 am
You’re kidding right? These are the most accurate projection systems available (aside from PECOTA which hasn’t been released yet). These are actually quite accurate, year in, year out.
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gutterkizmet says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:39 am
Sorry but those predictions are bogus for a player like Ollie - and are also bogus for just about any pitcher outside of a pitcher who has been consistant for many years. For young players still on the upside they are always 100% meaningless. If they were so good then salaries would be based on them. If they were so good they would never need to play the games.
Also - for hitters they are probably pretty accurate as well. But again for people who have been in the league for 10+ years and are no longer improving.
Ollie will put it together and break out. The question is if it will be this year or the following.

kingman 26 says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:41 am
No, of course I am not kidding. These projections can be right, wrong, or indifferent. They mean ZERO in terms of what Ollie will or will not do next year.
Ollie is a 27 year old with a checkered career, who has great stuff, who has the ability to pitch very well in NY, and, as another poster wisely pointed out, just got married, which could indeed affect his mental outlook tremendously. As could his first really huge contract.
I understand the whole sabermetrics thing, and I don’t use BA and W-L to judge players, but to propose that these projections have absolutely any meaning whatsoever in terms of what a 27-year-old pitcher with great stuff will do next year is just silly, and is the negative, over-the-top, side of sabermetrics.
In my opinion.

16dwight16 says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:36 am
“Do you have any idea whatsoever how utterly meaningless these projections you cite are?”
LOL…these projections are certainly more accurate than you.
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kingman 26 says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:44 am
What kind of projections do you think these folks would have made for Randy Johnson at age 27? And how right would they have been?
Gutter said it much better than I did. Projections like this are so bogus for a 27 year old pitcher with such an up and down career.
sabermetrician says:
January 15, 2009 at 10:02 am
They would have made better projections for Randy Johnson than Ollie. These are based on similarities going back to the minors and every level. You really need to look at how accurate they are.

MudvilleNine says:
January 15, 2009 at 10:56 am
At the age of 27 Randy Johnson was just finishing his second full year in the majors. Ollie has had 6.5 years in the majors. You guys really have to stop the “he’s young” stuff. He’s young if he’s 27 and only been in the league 2 to 3 years, not 6.5.Now I’m not saying these prediction numbers are right but the guy was replying to someone who says Ollie will win 20 games with a sub 3 era and all this other stuff based on that he’s gotten married. I think I’d go with the prediction based on numbers than the one based on the married mind of a guy who throws sidearm and eephus pitches whenever he gets bored on the mound.
agetting says:

January 15, 2009 at 9:18 am
First of all Ollie is NO Kazmir. Second of all we should have traded Church Kunz and a prospect for Dye. Third of all we should be signing Sheets
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sabermetrician says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:19 am
Agree that Ollie is no Kazmir (although will last longer).Agree with the trade.Agree with Sheets signing.
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gutterkizmet says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:27 am
I gotta disagree. Basball reference actually matches them as very similar. I would argue that Ollie will play for longer and be much better overall thanks to Kazmirs injuries.
Also baseball reference.com has the most similar pitcher to Ollie bu the end of Age 26 as besing Mark Langston. (by 25 was Frank Viola, 24 was Scott Olsen, 23 was Sandy Koufax, 22 was Scott Kazmir)
Sll some pretty good names. Since Langston is the most recent most similar lets see what he did after he was age 27: 4 All-star appearances, Many votes in the Cy Young (although never won it) Led the league in IP and K several times and was near the top in ERA - when although he pitched for 5 years before he was 26 he only showed promise. I am not saying that L:angston was a HOFer and I am not saying that Ollie is Langston - but their careers look pretty similar!
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sabermetrician says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:38 am
This is actually really good work. Thanks for the info.
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gutterkizmet says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:48 am
by the way to clarify my projection post - I do believe in sabermetric projections most of the time - just not with an up and down youngster. Or any young player for that matter. The projections really only take into consideration the past - not potential or outside factors.
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sabermetrician says:
January 15, 2009 at 10:03 am
You make a fair point. I just don’t see Ollie settling down all of a sudden. It’s a fair argument though.

gutterkizmet says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:55 am
Randy Johnsons Walk totals by age:
25 - 96 BB
26 - 120 BB
27 - 152 BB
28 - 144 BB

When he was 28 he spent most of the offseason working with Nolan Ryan (you can look into archives and read articles about it) and that is when he turned the corner and turned into a monster.
Again, I am not saying that Ollie is Randy Johnson, but there are many similarities. In fact both Barry Bonds and Chipper Jones have some quotes comparing the 2 - take a look at the back of Ollies 2006 Topps traded card (the first with him in a mets uniform) and read the quote from Chipper:
“He’s the closest thing to Randy Johnson you’ll see,” Chipper Jones once said of Perez.
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gutterkizmet says:
January 15, 2009 at 10:23 am
Some more Randy Johnson numbers by age:
Age * BB * WHIP *K/9 (not gonna use totals as pitchers were used differently 20 years ago)

24 - Only 4 Games
25 - 96 BB * 1.51 WHIP * 7.2 K/9
26 - 120 BB * 1.33 WHIP * 7.9K/9
27 - 152 BB * 1.505 WHIP * 10.2 K/9
28 - 144 BB * 1.41 WHIP * 10.31 K/9
29 - 99 BB * 1.11 WHIP * 10.85 K/9
30 - 72 BB * 1.18 WHIP * 10.6 K/9

Here is Ollie:
20 - 48 BB * 1.32 WHIP * 9.4 K/9
21 - 77 BB * 1.62 WHIP * 10.01 K/9
22 - 81 BB * 1.15 WHIP * 10.98 K/9
23 - 70 BB * 1.67 WHIP * 8.4 K/9
24 - 68 BB * 1.74 WHIP * 8.14 K/9
25 - 79 BB * 1.31 WHIP * 8.85 K/9
26 - 105 BB * 1.40 WHIP * 8.35 K/9

So no - Ollie does not really compare with Randy Johnson - as Ollie WHIP in 06/06 his 2 bad years are much worse that RJ’s, but really RJ was in the minors then. Ollies numbers are actually better than RJ through age 26.

But still there is at least a basic comparison there based on the quotes from Bonds and Jones (and others)

This is why the SABERmetric predictions hold no water in this case. If Ollie can have an event to mature him - he will be an All-Star and perennial Cy Young candidate. If he doesn’t mature he will be a just above league average pitcher, and a solid #3-4 guy with flashes of ACE/#2.
Maybe the Rangers should sign him and hive him work with Ryan like RJ did.
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What do you think? Any comments?