Well according to SI.com and Metsblog.com Ollie has won is arbitration case. I really didn't think he would win after what happened with Mr. Wang. Wang has clearly shown more success over the last 2 years. He doesn't have the exciting stats that Ollie has, nor the service time - but his success is among the best in baseball. Ollie does have a higher ceiling too, but I thought only results counted - and Wangs win total is impressive.
Here is my post on metsblog.com comments on the item. For some reason not all my posts show up on the site:
Hopefully winning his case will make him happy ... and the thought of a payday in 2009 will give him the motivation to stay focused this year.
A focused Ollie plus an A+ slider plus an A fastball plus a B+ slow curve + a B change + mentoring of Pedro + mentoring of Johan + Rick Peterson + NL Hitters + Shea Stadium + Contract year + pitching against other teams 3,4, and 5 starters ...
Equals
CY YOUNG FOR OLLIE IN 2008
(then probably Yankees in 2009 due to their penchant for grabbing players that excel against them)
http://oliverperezfan.blogspot.com
Friday, February 22, 2008
Ollie Wins His Arbitration Case
Thursday, February 21, 2008
ESPN.COM 2008 Player Predictions and Oliver Perez
Is it just me or does ESPN's rating system really suck. They are so far off on so many players it isn't funny. Especially players on the rise, or on the downside of their careers (it isn't hard to predict that Pujols will be good.) I was glancing through ESPN.com's FLB Projections for 2008. I am not sure what system they use to predict the stats for 2008, but I do not really understand how they are so low on Oliver. They mark him as the #55 fantasy starter for 2008. I clearly understand he is not top 20 - but I think #55 is pretty low.
Lets look at some of the other pitchers they have in the same range:
#47 - Bronson Arroyo - they predict 11 wins, and a K/9 ratio of 6.59 and a K/BB ratio of 2.48
#50 - Curt Schilling - umm they predict 0 appearances, and still put him in the top 50. That is pretty bold!
#51 - Zach Grienke - their numbers are off because the system they use pretty much has him as a reliver. I agree with him being at #51 - but Ollie should be way ahead. they say: There will be pressure, but if the kid can hold up, 12 wins, an ERA of about 4.00 and better than seven strikeouts per nine innings are possible.. If Ollie has these numbers it would be a HUGE dissapointment.
Here are the numbers they predict for Oliver Perez:
12 Wins - on this team, pitching against the other teams #3 or #4 ... come on he should easily have 15 like last year or much better
178 IP - this falls in line with what he did last year, but it was only that low due to 3 missed starts in the middle of the year. I think this is probably right, but if he has no injuries he should get closer to the 196 he threw in 2004, and probably reach 200 for the first time.
170 K - Last year was really the first year he had below 1K/1IP and it wasn't that far off with 174K in 177IP. If anything he should be back to where he was ... I see 210K in 200IP or even better.
K/BB - they predict 1.89. Are you serious? I know he has the tendancy to be wild and lose a little mental control - but why is this so far blow his career total? Last year he was 2.20 - but most of his walks came in just a couple outings. How many 0 and 1 walk outings did he have last year? Just as many as he had 4+ walk games ... (6 games with 0 walks, 1 game with 1 walk vs. 7 games with 4+ walks) His career is 1.96K/BB and that includes the horid 2005 and 2006 seasons. So ESPN thinks that this season will be a below average year for him in control? They think that the improvements he made last year were a fluke? WOW!
HR/9 - they predict 1.37 up from last years 1.12. Come on now. Yes he has a tendancy to give up the long ball - but that is mostly because he is a fly ball pitcher. He pitches half his games at Shea. Why would he regress? BTW his career numbers are 1.36HR/9. So again they think that this year will be worse than his career numbers. I don't see it. Remember he is still only 26. I don't think he is past his prime and ready to regress.
ERA - they predict 4.40. Considering his career ERA is 4.43 I can see them making this prediction. It could be right on - but with him pitching in the NL, with Rick Peterson helping, with Shea stadium helping, and the fact that he has veteran leadership helping him I can see him having much of a fall off from last years 3.56. I have already made my predictions on this site, and if you click on the predictions lable you can easily find what I wrote - but even if he has a "bad year" I can not see any worse than 3.99.
WHIP - They say 1.43. Again his career is 1.43 - so I guess they think he has made no improvements and is either a the peak of his career or the downside at age 26.
After looking at these statistics more for this post - I guess whoever did the numbers just looked at career numbers not trends or any other real analysis. I am too poor to pay for a lot of the analysis sites - if anyone wants to share Ollies PECOTA numbers or other predictions I would love to see it. I keep waiting for Amazin' Avenue to do their community predictions for Ollie.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
How Old is El Duque
Danish scientists have figured out how to tell how old someone is by the carbon isotopes in your eyes. They say it is accurate within a year. Some say he is 33, some say 37 ... I think he is more likely 47! Lets see what the Danes have to say!!!!!
Monday, February 18, 2008
Kyle Kendrick of the Phillies Traded to Japan
Kendrick was in "shock" he was traded for a relatively unknown. He thought the Phillies needed him this year - and that he was going to become a MLB star ... Its too bad that he doesn't yet realize that no one can ever be a HUGE star playing in Philidelphia. Even their biggest stars get little to no recognition on the big stage. They have MVP winners in Rollins and Howard, and that Utley guy is one of the best second basemen in the game - but outside of the Fantasy world and Phili - no one cares. He will gain more national recognition and endorsement money playing in Japan. (Companies don't shell out money to players who play for the team with the most losses of any professional sports team in history)
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/rumors/post/-Trade-to-Japan-leaves-Kendrick-in-shock?urn=mlb%2C67246
(Yes I am aware it was a joke played on him - pretty funny though)
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Tom Glavine is Happy to be back on the Braves
That was the headline on ESPN.com a day or so ago. It should have read:
Mets fans rejoice!
There were a lot of fans who loved Glavine on the Mets before the epic loss he threw during the last game of last season. I have always disliked Glavine - just as most Met fans do now. He was an Atlanta Brave to me, and will always be a Brave - and I became a baseball fanatic when the Braves were the team to hate.
So here's to you ... BUH BYE GLAVINE ... Hello Johan.