Monthly Post

Here it is a month later, and still no posts. I guess there just hasn't been much to talk about.


The Mets bullpen sucks. Ollie hasn't been that dominant since shaving the beard.


But just in case the Mets need any more reason to callapse again this year, I was selected to buy NLDS tickets. I was selected for NLCS tickets last year and look where that got me!!!

Pitcher of the Second Half - as of August18

I think this debate is over before it even begins ... as CC Sabathia has pretty much torn through the NL since moving to Milwaukee.

But I guess I would love to see some numbers of who in MLB have been the best pitchers in the second half (not since the all-star break, but after most teams hit 81 games. Since I am in NY and I have a NY Bias I will use the Yankees schedule and use the date that they played their 81st game as the starting point for this conversation: The Yankees Played their 81st game of the season on June 28th - so I will use that day as the start of the second half.

I feel that Wins and Losses are irrelavent as they have more to do with run support and how will the opposing pitcher pitches - so they are out of my equation. Here is how I score the pitchers:

((3 x IP) + K - BB - H - ER)

A few thoughts:

Only Roy Halladay is on the list from AL

Tim Lincecum not only had a great first half, but is kicking ass in the second half too. He is my pick for NL Cy Young even though only Brandon Webb will probably eclipse the 20 win mark.

The Mets have 2 pitchers on the list in Santana and Perez. They were my preseason picks for NL Cy Young - and the second half has really shown they have the ability. It makes me thiunk back to good old 2004 when these 2 were the talk of baseball as young pitchers. Santana has lived up to the hype. Although I still think I am the biggest Ollie fan out there, I am not ready to say he has performed - but by the looks of things he is on his way.

Comparing Oliver Perez to the NL Average Starter before the All-Star Break

About a week ago I did an analysis on Ollie's first half, and compared it to the league average. The numbers I pulled from were from ESPN's league totals section. I do not think it fairly represents 'average though' as it includes all the relievers, the rookies who came up for one start ... etc. So I decided to redo the numbers using only the pitchers who currently qualify for the league ERA title. I figured this would be the list of full time starters for at least most of the season. This should be a more accurate view of how he has compared to an average national league starter before the all-str break in 2008:

As you can see from the numbers above, the comparison to the actual average of the real full time starters does not paint as good of a picture as the comparison to the league as a whole.

Now the change in Ollies mechanics may have helped him turn the corner as his last 3 starts have been much better. Lets look at the numbers:

Games Started - Right on key with average
IP and IP/Start - Ollie had 2 starts that bring his average way down, but even without those his longevity in each game is a major concern so far.
W/L and Win% - His winning percentage is a little better than average, but obviously a 2 or 3 starter should be better here. Wins and losses are probably the most useless stat in comparing pitchers as it depends on so many factors ... run support, bullpen ... etc.

The rest of the stats with the exception of Hits/9 and K/9 he is well below average. These numbers are fairly startling. (I did think the unearned runs per 9 would be much worse)

All-in-all it really looks like Ollie has been a below average pitcher so far this year. If the Mets want to make it to the post season they will need Ollie to continue what he has shown in his last 3 starts (minus the walks in the last start).

Good luck in the second half.

Olliver Perez Collection Update

Since Ollie has been doing his best Victor Zambrano impression so far this year, I have had the opportunity to pick up a bunch of additions to my collection on the relative cheap! Actually REAL cheap. It will either bring down the average cost per card I have and help me dollar cost average the investment for maximum profit, or it will just be a few more dollars I have thrown into worthless cardboard.

Lets hope the renewed confidence and wind-up help as much as I think it will!

Here are some cards I have added recently:

2002 Leaf Rookies and Stars AU (NNO/175)
2002 Donruss Fan Club Credits (036/100)
2002 Bowman Chrome Draft Picks BGS 9
2002 Bowman Chrome Draft Picks Refractor (X2) (163/300 and 286/300)
2002 Bowman Chrome Draft Picks XFractor (046/150)
2002 Bowman Chrome Draft Picks Gold Refractor BGS 8.5 (29/50)
2002 SPX AU (690/825)
2002 Donruss Elite Extra Edition Turn of the Century (X2)(XX/75)(0027/1000 and PSA9 0078/1000)

I have also purchased a 2002 UD Victory card which I haven't yet received and was paid for almost 3 weeks ago, another 2002 Upper Deck Ultimate Collection that was paid for about 4-5 days ago but have not yet received, and the ones that has upset me the most:

another 2002 Bowman Chrome Gold Refractor. The seller claims his son bent the card and I should decide what I want to do. I got the card for cheap enough where I might still want it, but still it is upsetting. I may just ask for a refund. That has to bode well for his other gold refractors though. If one was destroyed - then only 49 reamin in good condition.

I have a pretty high percentage of the total of all of Olivers Rookie cards. This brings me back to thr though of what would happen to the percieved value of his cards if my house burned down. I mean if I own about 5% of all of his cards in existance and they all suddenly were destroyed wouldn't that be similar to say the Honus wagner card that is worth so much because of the recall?

Metsblog and their mid-season grades ...

Metsblog.com is currently doing a great piece asking the fans to give each of the players on the team a mid-season grade. The results are sometimes comical as many of the outspoken metsfans have pretty much lost all faith in their team. Seeing Johan Santana get a vote for an F for instance his comical as even after a low first half he is still one of the best pitchers in the game ...

Here is the link to their current piece on Ollie:

http://www.metsblog.com/2008/07/01/poll-mid-season-grade-for-oliver-perez/#comment-236958

As of this moment, Ollie has received a C with 51% of the votes and a smattering of other choices. I too voted a C. In the comment section I voiced my reasoning:

Comment by gutterkizmet
2008-07-01 14:39:23
I am still probably the biggest Ollie Fan out there - I have the olliverperezfan site to prove it - that being said:
I gave him a C - probably higher than he deserved, but even in school your are graded on the final exam more heavily than the breadth of the entire work - what have you done for me lately.

If you look back through the posts you will see I predicted the great start against the Yankees - mostly because of their lefty centric line-up. The Yanks sat most of their lefty’s and he still pitched lights out - being the reason I gave him a C instead of a D. (I predicted he would do great and the Mets would immediately offer him to the Yankees for some MLB ready talent as they Steinbrenners use the “if you can’t beat em, buy em philosophy”

The change in his wind-up with the back and forth instead of right to left, combined with the hitch at his belt, and the center of the rubber thing might end up being the fix he needs. The confidence he displayed on the mound with the K of ARod and others made me a believer again.

Isn’t a VORP around 0 basically saying he is league average? Isn’t average a C?

Anyway his stuff and his latest outing give him a C. His next outing against the Phillies will determine his final grade though:

Great outing with 0 or 1 walk and 0-1 ER will push him up to a B.
Outing with 0-2 walks and 2-3 ER will keep him at a C (Hitter friendly park)
Any more than 2-3 walks will push him to a D
If his fastball goes back to 89-91 will probably make him a D too
A Shelling will make him an F and probable tradebait or minor leaguer.

Then I also added this:

Comment by gutterkizmet
2008-07-01 14:57:03
BTW - I still say C average considering what I just looked at:

National League Average:
ERA: 4.24 (Ollie: 4.96)
W/L%: .500 (Ollie .545)
K/9: 6.8 (Ollie 7.6)
BB/9: 3.5 (Ollie 5.1)
WHIP: 1.40 (Ollie 1.47)
BAA .262 (Ollie .243)

He is a little worse than avg in ERA
He is a little better in Win%
He is much better in K/9
He is MUCH worse in BB/9
His WHIP is withing a standard deviation of AVG.
His BAA is better than AVG.

All in all - if his new motion can give him better control than he will be much better than AVG - but for the first half I would say he looks like the average pitcher. Perfect for a 3-4 slot guy, great for a #5 - with the potential to be much much better.

What do you think?

Great Outing Against the Yankees and Collection Update

Yes, I am still the worst blogger of all-time.

Great outing against the Yanks with the new windup. A little crazy still from the stretch.

A bunh more cards including another gold refractor. I will post scans soon ...

Worst Blogger ... ever!

When I started this blog, it was supposed to be a spot to share my thoughts on baseball and card collecting in general, along with views on Oliver Perez and his performance.

I have failed miserably due to heavy stuff at work and at home. Lets see if I can start over with some information.

In case you missed them - Oliver has stunk since my last post. OK, not stunk - but he hasn't been very good. He has reverted to the old Ollie - dropping arm angles and being wild. Last start he had 8 count em 8 walks! He has hit more batters than I care to mention...

Luckily enough he has shown some resiliency in getting out of jams. Left handed hitters might as well go to the plate with a blindfold on, and he has been keeping the team in the games.

I will post the box scores in my next post ...

Collection Update

Just picked these 2 up for stupidly cheap. Hopefully Ollie will continue his 0 earned run trends for a few more outings. If he can do that it might be time to try and flip some of his cards to recoup some of my investment. If I can do that and get to even or close to it with just a few cards - I could have the rest free and clear and root by being a fan instead of just with my wallet!

2002 Upper Deck SPX, Card# 235 Auto

#690/825 (bringing my total of this card to 16 out of the 825)

2002 Bowman Chrome Draft, Card #BDP113, Refractor

#163/300 (bringing my total to 9 of the 300)

Sorry for the bad image. Something is wrong with the camera in my phone when used with the office lighting.

Game Day Log - Start #2 - Against the Phillies in NY - The Final Home Opener at Shea

Well this one is only a few days late. Hopefully I will be more timely in the future and add some of the other pieces I wanted to add. The is the second straight start I missed being able to watch. This one because it was a day game, and I was on a plane going from Ohio back to Albany after some business meetings.

4/12/08

In the final home opener at Shea - the Mets bullpen ruined the day for both Ollie and the Mets. The Mets lost 5-3 after another solid outing by Ollie.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=280408121

Ollie goes 5.2, again allowing 0 runs, and no extra base hits. From what I could tell, and what I have read - Ollie was not quite as sharp today as he was in FL last week - but he still shut the Phillies down. He did walk a few more, but from the pitch by pitch recap from the game log - some of the balls could have been called strikes based on their location on the system. Ollie left the game with 2 outs in the 5th. He got 2 quick outs, but then a walk, then a balk, then another walk. He did a great job maintaining his composure under presseure all-day but with a pitch count of 95, Willie decided to take hom out before a blow up. Out of the inning without any damage. The bullpen ruined the rest. On the bright side - Ollie did hit chase Utley 2 times, and the Pen hit him again. Teach that fu(&er to move off the plate a little!

Ollies Line: 5.2IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 2 K, 0 R, 0 ER

Fantasy Stats YTD: 1 Win, 0.00 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 10 K, Sandbox: 20.5ppg

Game Day Log - Start #1 - Against the Marlins in FL - a Week late!

Here I am, being one of the worst bloggers AGAIN. I have all these great plans on what I am going to post about - yet I am either too busy, or too lazy to actually post what I plan!

Hopefully these posts will get more in-depth as the season rolls along, but for now this will have to do.

4/2/2008

Oliver dominated the Marlins, striking out 8 in 6 IP, allowing no runs, no extra base hits, and walking one. This line looked like this:

6IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

Fantasy Stats to date: 1 Win, 1.00 WHIP, 8 K, 0.00 ERA - Sandbox - 30.0 PPG

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=280402128

I didn't get to watch the game in person, as it was one of my last bowling nights of the year, but I did watch most of it on the gamecase on my Sprint HTC touch phone. That feature is actually pretty cool as it allows me to see where all of the pitches were, the type of pitch, and the speed.

Ollie was in the low 90's, he hit 94/95 a few times - but seemed to be relying on his fastball low and away on almost every pitch. He rarely mixed in his slider and curve - but when he did I can imagine how hard it must have been for the hitters to react. If the mets weren't up by 11 he probably would have went deeper into the game, but the 93 pitches he threw probably had something to do with it as well.

Ollies First Start of the Year - Tonight!!!!

As usual, I have been remiss in posting to this site - but that is mostly because it has been Spring training - and I really only care about the real deal.

After his start tonight I will be posting lots of great info and analysis!!!

GO OLLIE!!

Spring Training So Far

Why do the Mets play such horrible defense behind Oliver Perez? He has had 2 starts this spring and has already given up 5 unearned runs. Is it because they never expect anyone to hit the ball so they fall asleep?

Last year he had a great ERA, but people pointed to his tendancy to give up unearned runs, and for him to lose his cool after a miscue. The mets have a solid defense - but I gotta blame them not Ollie. Someone should figure out why they can't catch a ball when he pitches the find a way to mentally fix it. Look back to his 2006 stint with the Mets - even in his first outing in a game against the Phillies the Mets gloves let him down leading to a Ryan Howard Grand Slam when he should have been out of the inning without allowing a baserunner. If I remember correctly they did not give any errors in that inning - but go back and watch the sloppy defense. It very easily could have been 4 more unearned runs.

Spitzer Swallows

Ahh love potion number 9 ... oops I mean Prostitution Client #9.

Here's to you!

I don't make a habit of writing about politics, I will probably have a few posts about my personal presidential write in campaign, but I could not get past writing about this. Spitzer has become the latest politician to disgrace his constituency by doing the very thing he fought against - breaking the law. He won the NYS election by a landslide yet even before this report he had a lower approval rating than George Bush.

All I can say is - please please please someone show me a picture of the girl that cost him roughly $5,000 an hour. It must be pretty nice for the type of scratch!

Phillies Sluggers

I have said many times before, I am not a Met fan at all. I bleed the Pinstripes - however fantasy baseball has turned me on to rooting for players more than teams, and by following Oliver Perez so closely - I obviously have started to enjoy watching the Mets every fifth day. That said - I am really starting to hate the Phillies. I shouldn't rub it in too hard though - I mean they are the losingest franchise in all of pro-sports of all-time!

That said - they have 3 players on their team that can all win an MVP in Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Jimmy Rollins.

2002 Bowman Chase Utley
2004 Leaf Ceritified Materials Ryan Howard
2002 Bowman Chrome Jimmy Rollins
Chase Utley is the only one of the 3 not to have won a MVP - but this could be his year if he stays healthy. He has had a few injuries the last few years, so that would have him fall to the end of the first round or the start of the second round.

Jimmy Rollins is a monster and should be drafted back to back with Hansley Ramirez and Jose Reyes in the middle of the first round. You can't go wrong with his power, speed, average, and all at a weak position. I know there are 3 - but after that you have what Jeter? Then who? What will they give your fantasy team! There are 3 first round shortstops, one that should go in round 3, then no one for the next 5-6 rounds. If you dont get one of the big guys you might as well punt the position!

Ryan Howard is an enigma. He can win the MVP award as he did 2 years ago or he can strike out 200 times. Possibly both in the same season. I don't know about you but I will take a pass until round 3. He will most likely be taken before that in most drafts, but I wont be buying!

David Wright and Jose Reyes

David Wright and Jose Reyes are the real key to the Mets in 2008. They both need to play strong defense - especially when Ollie is on the mound so he doesn't get all the unearned runs he had last year. They need to hit. They need to steal. They are both legitimate MVP Candidates!

Also, my boss's daughter used to date David in High School - so although I have never met the girl, or David - I still feel a strange bond! ROFL.

David Wright - 2002 Bowman and 2002 Bowman's Best Blue
Jose Reyes - 2001 Bowman and 2001 Topps Update Chrome
David Wright and Jose Reyes
I plan on posting my fantasy reviews of players seperately when I do a multiple player post like this one - but in this case they 2 are so similar in fantasy baseball ...

Both are first rounders (giving the Mets and astounding 3 players in the first round of my 14 team league) David Wright is the 2nd most valuable Third Basemen and Reyes is tied for the best SS in all of fantasy baseball. It is hard to choose between Rollins and Hansley Ramirez. Unless you have one of the top 3 picks in your draft one of these 2 should warrant consideration as your pick!

Baseball Cards and my Fantasy Take on the Players

One of my goals of starting this site was to display some of my cards, and to see if anyone has any interest in trading or purchasing any of them. If there is any interest I will put them up on eBay. For the next few posts I will be displaying some cards of some players, and giving my fantasy take on the players displayed.

2004 Upper Deck Etchings - Etched in time Auto's
Joe Mauer
Carlos Zambrano



Joe Mauer, Catcher for the Twins
Joe will be THE elite catcher in baseball if he can stay healthy. One has to wonder when he will be moved from being a catcher to either DH or to 1B. He can flat out rake - and his injuries have been with his knees. Seems to me like he should stop catching ... DUH! I love that he can play catcher on my fantasy team and I would hate for him to lose the position eligibility - but it has to be done soon. Take him in round 3 if he is still available!

Carlos Zambrano, Pitcher for the Cubs
Is it just me, or has he sucked every April for the last few years, yet he always ends up with some of the best fantasy numbers a manager can ask for. I say don't pick him in the first few rounds. Someone will take him in rounds 2-3. When he has his bad April like he always does you can grab him cheap for trade. I have done it many times and it always works like a charm!

Ollie Wins His Arbitration Case

Well according to SI.com and Metsblog.com Ollie has won is arbitration case. I really didn't think he would win after what happened with Mr. Wang. Wang has clearly shown more success over the last 2 years. He doesn't have the exciting stats that Ollie has, nor the service time - but his success is among the best in baseball. Ollie does have a higher ceiling too, but I thought only results counted - and Wangs win total is impressive.

Here is my post on metsblog.com comments on the item. For some reason not all my posts show up on the site:

Hopefully winning his case will make him happy ... and the thought of a payday in 2009 will give him the motivation to stay focused this year.

A focused Ollie plus an A+ slider plus an A fastball plus a B+ slow curve + a B change + mentoring of Pedro + mentoring of Johan + Rick Peterson + NL Hitters + Shea Stadium + Contract year + pitching against other teams 3,4, and 5 starters ...
Equals

CY YOUNG FOR OLLIE IN 2008

(then probably Yankees in 2009 due to their penchant for grabbing players that excel against them)
http://oliverperezfan.blogspot.com

ESPN.COM 2008 Player Predictions and Oliver Perez

Is it just me or does ESPN's rating system really suck. They are so far off on so many players it isn't funny. Especially players on the rise, or on the downside of their careers (it isn't hard to predict that Pujols will be good.) I was glancing through ESPN.com's FLB Projections for 2008. I am not sure what system they use to predict the stats for 2008, but I do not really understand how they are so low on Oliver. They mark him as the #55 fantasy starter for 2008. I clearly understand he is not top 20 - but I think #55 is pretty low.

Lets look at some of the other pitchers they have in the same range:

#47 - Bronson Arroyo - they predict 11 wins, and a K/9 ratio of 6.59 and a K/BB ratio of 2.48

#50 - Curt Schilling - umm they predict 0 appearances, and still put him in the top 50. That is pretty bold!

#51 - Zach Grienke - their numbers are off because the system they use pretty much has him as a reliver. I agree with him being at #51 - but Ollie should be way ahead. they say: There will be pressure, but if the kid can hold up, 12 wins, an ERA of about 4.00 and better than seven strikeouts per nine innings are possible.. If Ollie has these numbers it would be a HUGE dissapointment.

Here are the numbers they predict for Oliver Perez:

12 Wins - on this team, pitching against the other teams #3 or #4 ... come on he should easily have 15 like last year or much better

178 IP - this falls in line with what he did last year, but it was only that low due to 3 missed starts in the middle of the year. I think this is probably right, but if he has no injuries he should get closer to the 196 he threw in 2004, and probably reach 200 for the first time.

170 K - Last year was really the first year he had below 1K/1IP and it wasn't that far off with 174K in 177IP. If anything he should be back to where he was ... I see 210K in 200IP or even better.

K/BB - they predict 1.89. Are you serious? I know he has the tendancy to be wild and lose a little mental control - but why is this so far blow his career total? Last year he was 2.20 - but most of his walks came in just a couple outings. How many 0 and 1 walk outings did he have last year? Just as many as he had 4+ walk games ... (6 games with 0 walks, 1 game with 1 walk vs. 7 games with 4+ walks) His career is 1.96K/BB and that includes the horid 2005 and 2006 seasons. So ESPN thinks that this season will be a below average year for him in control? They think that the improvements he made last year were a fluke? WOW!

HR/9 - they predict 1.37 up from last years 1.12. Come on now. Yes he has a tendancy to give up the long ball - but that is mostly because he is a fly ball pitcher. He pitches half his games at Shea. Why would he regress? BTW his career numbers are 1.36HR/9. So again they think that this year will be worse than his career numbers. I don't see it. Remember he is still only 26. I don't think he is past his prime and ready to regress.

ERA - they predict 4.40. Considering his career ERA is 4.43 I can see them making this prediction. It could be right on - but with him pitching in the NL, with Rick Peterson helping, with Shea stadium helping, and the fact that he has veteran leadership helping him I can see him having much of a fall off from last years 3.56. I have already made my predictions on this site, and if you click on the predictions lable you can easily find what I wrote - but even if he has a "bad year" I can not see any worse than 3.99.

WHIP - They say 1.43. Again his career is 1.43 - so I guess they think he has made no improvements and is either a the peak of his career or the downside at age 26.

After looking at these statistics more for this post - I guess whoever did the numbers just looked at career numbers not trends or any other real analysis. I am too poor to pay for a lot of the analysis sites - if anyone wants to share Ollies PECOTA numbers or other predictions I would love to see it. I keep waiting for Amazin' Avenue to do their community predictions for Ollie.

How Old is El Duque

Danish scientists have figured out how to tell how old someone is by the carbon isotopes in your eyes. They say it is accurate within a year. Some say he is 33, some say 37 ... I think he is more likely 47! Lets see what the Danes have to say!!!!!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080219/sc_nm/eyes_birth_dc

Kyle Kendrick of the Phillies Traded to Japan

Kendrick was in "shock" he was traded for a relatively unknown. He thought the Phillies needed him this year - and that he was going to become a MLB star ... Its too bad that he doesn't yet realize that no one can ever be a HUGE star playing in Philidelphia. Even their biggest stars get little to no recognition on the big stage. They have MVP winners in Rollins and Howard, and that Utley guy is one of the best second basemen in the game - but outside of the Fantasy world and Phili - no one cares. He will gain more national recognition and endorsement money playing in Japan. (Companies don't shell out money to players who play for the team with the most losses of any professional sports team in history)

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/rumors/post/-Trade-to-Japan-leaves-Kendrick-in-shock?urn=mlb%2C67246

(Yes I am aware it was a joke played on him - pretty funny though)

Tom Glavine is Happy to be back on the Braves

That was the headline on ESPN.com a day or so ago. It should have read:

Mets fans rejoice!

There were a lot of fans who loved Glavine on the Mets before the epic loss he threw during the last game of last season. I have always disliked Glavine - just as most Met fans do now. He was an Atlanta Brave to me, and will always be a Brave - and I became a baseball fanatic when the Braves were the team to hate.

So here's to you ... BUH BYE GLAVINE ... Hello Johan.

Lazy Me ... AAAAh Spring

Pitchers and Catchers have reported

Sandbox.com has opened its baseball doors

I am traveling full tilt for work.

I have a bunch of great ideas for this coming season. I cant wait.

For now lets just hope that Ollies arbitration case goes well. I would hate to see him leave NY as a free agent this off-season. It will make it infintately harder to watch his outings.

Joba Rules

Speaking of young powerfull arms ... I am really torn on what to think on Joba Chamberlain.

The Yankees still don't know what they will do with him in 2008. Will he be the set-up man for Rivera and be groomed for the closer role - just like they did with Rivera when John Wetland was the Yankee Closer? Joba has been a starter for his college and minor league career, and the Yankees have said that since he has so many plus pitches - they feel he will be a front line starter.

By looking at his stats though college and the minors, I have to think his incredible start was an abberation. Yes he can blow people away ... but ... I don't see how you can have average minor league numbers, and blow major league hitters away the way he did. The AL will figure him out this season, and his numbers should regress to the mean. That mean might be real good, but definately not what he did in 2007.

Here is my prediction for 2008:

He is a starter for the entire year, but the Yankees monitor his IP and Starts very closely.

He ends 15-6 with a 3.65 ERA, racks up 182 K's in 161.2 IP and has a WHIP of 1.14

Thats a great line for a youngster in the AL, but definately not as good as most Yankee fans think he will have. I always hear people predicting an ERA in the low 1's and like 5 K's per IP, and 2 Cy Young awards in the same year. It just wont happen!

The Effect of Veteran Leadership

One of the things I have spoken about in regards to Perez for the last few years, is the lack of coaching he had on the Pirates. And I am not talking about the pitching coach in Pittsburgh, because I know nothing about him. For all I know he is the best coach in the history of baseball.

When Perez was on the Pirates, he was in his early 20's, and had just completed one of the best seasons a 23 year old could ask for. He led the league in K/9, was near the top in ERA, and had the likes of Barry Bonds and Chipper Jones singing his praises. I don't know about you - but when I was 23 - I didn't listen well to authority figures.

What Perez needed, was exactly what he didn't have. He went into 2005 as the ace of the staff at 24. He was the veteran - pitching with the Snell, Fogg, and Wells, and the rookies. (Snell was a rookie then too.) His mechanics and work ethic suffered. His mental game fell apart. He needed guidance, and beyond the coaching staff - he had no one to give it to him.

Fast forward a year and a half. Perez is given up on by the Pirates, and was basically a throw in contained in a deal for Roberto Hernandez to get the deal done. The Pirates wanted to shed payroll in Bert, and get a promising young outfielder in Xavier Nady. The Mets desperately needed a reliever to fill in for the injured Duaner Sanchez.

Oliver was now in an environment with the likes of Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez, and Orlando Hernandez to help mentor him to better things.

Now he gets to hear the input of another great Hispanic pitcher with Johan Santana. Both are lefty, and have great stuff.

I really do think that this will bode real well for Ollie in 2008 and beyond!

Johan Santana Trade and the Effect on Oliver Perez

I have been thinking about this for a bit, and I am not quite sure what to think. I would love to hear any comments - if so - please post in the comments, or e-mail me at oliverperezfan@gmail.com.

Baseball Card Values and stats changes

Pitching in NY gives him a visibility boost, and allows more fans to follow him, thus helping his values, however pitching in the #3 or #4 slot definately makes him a less visible star.

Pitching against the other teams #3 or #4 should help his wins totals, and increase his chances at awards, which should also help.

Having another power pitching lefty in the rotation could hurt though. Both pitchers have a similar style. Strike em out, fast ball, fly ball. I think the difference is the out pitch. While Johan has one of if not the best changeup in the game, Ollie relies on an unhittable slider.

My prediction for Ollie in 2008 stays the same - just the award is different.

Johan Santana wins the Cy Young, Peavy comes in second, and Ollie comes in a distant third.


The Mets rotation this year 1-4 could have one of the best stat lines we have seen in a long long time.

1. Johan Santana
2. Pedro Martinez
3. Oliver Perez
4. John Maine
5. Orlando Hernandez / Mike Pelfrey / Some other pickup

I wonder what the record for most K's in a season by a pitching staff is? The Mets will rack em up this year!

The Complex Case of Oliver Perez

Baseball Think Factory is an excellent site that does an excellent job of posting about the actual inner workings of baseball. The break down swings, strengths, weakness, pitching mechanics, and lots more stuff. After the 2006 season they did a great write up on Oliver Perez, and what he did right in 2004, what he did wrong in 2005 and 2006, and what Rick Peterson changed to bring him back. It's a great read, but this post is just so I can beg him to update his Oliver Perez review, and show the differences in 2007.

I reccomend checking out their site, and this great post!

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/mechanics/discussion/the_complex_case_of_oliver_perez/

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/

Lost in the Johan Santana Rumors

Every day on hundreds of blogs across the country, Johan Santana is the main focus of fans due to his impending trade demands. No one knows if he will in fact be traded, or if it is all just a dream that we all have. I would love to see him go to the Yankees or the Mets - for the same reason I want Oliver Perez on either the Yankees or the Mets. It will give me the opportunity to watch him pitch more. Any opportunity you have to see one of the greatest pitchers of a generation - you should count your blessings. I got to see Roger Clemens regulary - I was at opening day when he broke Walter Johnsons AL strikeout record. I got to see Randy Johnson - albeit at the downside of his career. I got to watch Dwight Gooden as a flamethrowin youngster and at the end of his career. I could go on about perfect games and no hitters, Jim Abbott and his one hand. If these guys never played for the Mets or Yankees I would have almost never seen them. That is why I need Johan in NY.

The thing most people are not talking about in the Johan trade rumors is the fact the Twins have someone coming back from an injury that has the ability to make the fans forget Johan pitched there. Francisco Liriano will be returning with Spring training, and from what I have seen - he has the ability to be much better than Johan. He proved it in 2006 before he got hurt. If he is back to 80% of where he was - he will have a shot at the AL Cy Young in 2008.

2002 Bowman Draft Picks
Card# BDP147

Chrome Version - (1)

Fantasy Baseball

February 4th is right around the corner, and I am getting excited for another season of Sandbox fantasy baseball!!!!

I saw a real stupid list of the 101 best fantasy baseball teams in another blog. Normally I would not link it as it is pretty bad, but a few made me giggle.

I link it because it has:

28. Oliver for Perezident - Mets fans should like this one

I think I might steal that name this year in at least one of my leagues!

http://www.brockforbroglio.com/2008/01/23/101-of-the-best-fantasy-baseball-team-names/

Cheezy Youtube Video

I thought I would add some fun youtube videos to the blog, and I just started looking for some. The first one that pops up when you di a search is about his performance in the 2006 NLCS game 7. It was a great game, and is what gave me back my confidence in him as a pitcher - but the music in this video makes me laugh.

Gotta love watching him jump the foul line, and seeing the Chavez catch again still makes me smile!

Oliver Perez and his Arbitration

Ollie can be a free agent at the end of the 2008 season, and this is the first season that he is arbitration eligible. He has signed with Scott Boras as his agent, and this will likely scare many teams off next season, but if he puts together a season anything like 2004 or 2007 this year he will be in line for a HUGE payday. I am sure the book that Boras will put together will make him look better than almost every pitcher. He will be only 27, and the K/9 will say everything.

I love Ollie playing in New York because I get to watch all of his outings on TV, so if he doesn't stay with the Mets than I hope the Yankees can squeeze a few more millions out of their tiny budget! He has shown he can pitch in New York, and in the past the Yankees have gone out of their way to sign players that do well against them (look at his stats against the Yankees in 2007)

Remember Danny Tartbull? He killed the Yankees in the late 80's - so when he was a free agent the Yankees made him rich (they got nothing for their money but the point is the same) Look at Jaret Wright. We all knew he sucked. We all knew he wasn't worth the money that the Yankees paid him - but they did it because of how well he pitched against them when he was on Cleveland. Sidney Ponson - same thing. I could go on forever.

Oliver Perez has asked the Mets for $6.5 million in 2008, and the Mets have countered with 4.7 million. If the team and Ollie can not come to an agreement then the case will go to arbitration. I have heard some people argue that the Mets should just give in to his demands, as it will show some confidence in him, and that could bode well when it comes time to resign. Personally I think that is a crock. Scott Boras will not allow it to happen unless Ollie kicks him to the curb like ARod did.

In my opinion, Omar Minaya should make a good faith effort to sit down with Oliver and Boras and come to a mutual agreement, and not let it go to arbitration. The results will probably be the same - in the 5.5 million dollar range, and it will show a willingness to work together. The Mets should then make a point to get Oliver to go to lunch with ARod when the subway series happens to talk about Boras. That might be the straw that allows the Mets to keep Ollie in 2009 and beyond!

Haven't posted in a while

My readership is still pretty low, but I still want to apologize for not posting in a few days. Had to travel for work.

2005 Leaf Limited

Another Non Rookie that I will post, and this one even deserves a separate post from the other non-rookies posted in the last entry. I do not have any of the standard version of the card, but I am interested in obtaining any other versions of this card that exist.

2005 Leaf Limited

Card #41

I currently have 3:

Spotlight Silver - 28/50

Spotlight Gold - 16/25

Spotlight Platinum - 1/1

Some Later Cards

As I have said in my introductions, After posting my current collection, this site will be mostly about everything. Although I mostly collect only Oliver's rookie cards - every now and then something catches my eye and I purchase it. I am sure I have a ton of his cards throughout my collection - but again I will only be posting about the ones I like.

Here are a bunch of other cards that I consider postable:

2006 Topps Update

Card #UH67

Someone threw this card into one of my eBay purchases, and I like it for 2 reasons. First - it is the first card showing Ollie in a Mets uniform. Second - it has one of the best quotes about Oliver on the back, and it comes from one of the Mets most hated players:

"He's the closest thing to Randy Johnson you'll see," Chipper Jones once said of Perez.

it also says:

"If he's close to the pitcher of 2004, when he logged the third most strikeouts in Pirates history, they'll have made the deal of the century"

I think he came pretty close to 2004 in 2007, and I deel he will be more in 2008!

2003 Playoff Absolute Memorabilia

Card #147

I have the spectrum version of this card. It is serial numbered 036/100.

2003 Donruss

Card #36

I have 1 of these cards as well. Gotta love the Rated Rookie Subsets!

2003 Upper Deck

Card #23

I have 2 of these cards - one from the First Pitch version, and one standard.

2003 Upper Deck SP Authentic

Card #OP

This card is from the SP Chirography Young Stars Auto Subset. Serial numbered 17/50

Minor League Cards

I am not a huge fan of collecting Minor League cards. They always seemed so low quality and so easy to forge. I have a few of Olivers - mostly cards that were thrown in to trades or eBay purchases. I am lumping them toether for this post:

2001 Fort Wayne Wizards - (1)

2001 Multi-Ad Sports - (7)

2002 Fleer Tradition

This is the last of the 2002 rookies I own. I will be posting some of the other cards of his I have - but I mainly only collect the 2002 rookies. If anyone has anything else good - I always want to see it, and possibly buy it - but I really only collect the rookies.

This card is real plain. It reminds me of the set that Fleer put out in the early 60's. 1961 if I remember correctly. Anyway it is just plain, no serial numbers - but apparently it was pretty hard to find this card and set.

2002 Fleer Tradition Update

Card #U58

Standard Version - (2)

2002 Upper Deck Ball Park Idols

As I mentioned in an earlier post - this is by far the worst issue of 2002. WAY WAY WAY TOOOOOOO Much border. It is serial numbered - but that is about it.

2002 Upper Deck Ballpark Idols

Card #241

Standard Version - (3) each serial numbered to 1750. I currently have #'s 0519, 0587, and 1657

2002 Donruss Originals

Another throwback set. They take the stars and rookies of today, and use their old designs to make new cards. People must be way out of ideas! This phenomenon has been going on toooooooooooooooooooooo long now. In 2002 Donruss decided to remake their 1982 and 1984 sets (the original 1984 Donruss sets is one of the rarest of the 80's)

Oliver had 2 cards in this set.

2002 Donruss Originals

Cards #9 and 122

Card # 9 - 1982 Version - (2) 1 of which is BGS graded 9.5 (9.5, 9.5, 9.5, 9.5)

Card #122 - 1984 Version - (2)

2002 Upper Deck Ovation

Not too much to say about this card. Another upper deck issue, another ugly card! At least it isnt as bad as the ballpark idols card I will post about later! The cards are serial numbered so they got that going for them ... which is nice! The back says almost nothing except that he had 94K's in 90 innings in 2002. This set must have been released after the season was complete.

2002 Upper Deck Ovation

Card #171

Standard Version: (4) Each serial numbered XXXX/2002. I currently have #'s 0652, 0752, 0957, 1586

2002 Donruss Diamond Kings

Ahhh remember the good old days? You know they days when you could buy a pack of Donruss for $0.45 each and each pack contained 15 player cards? Compare that today when you get 5 cards for $2.99! Think back to those 1980's packs. The diamond kings were a great set, and normalled occupied the first 26 spots in the set - followed by the Rated Rookies. To be a diamond king you had to be the best player on your team, and not voted a diamond king in any of the previous 5 years. When the subset had been around long enough - they wrote on the back the years the player had been chosen. The cards were great artist renditions of the players. Sometimes the artwork was great - sometimes it wasn't. That all added to the fun.

Well those days are gone. Donruss took the great idea and ruined it. In the early 2000's they put out a set of all Diamond kings. Doesn't that remove some of the honor? They included rookies like Oliver Perez - who had never played a game in the majors!

2002 Donruss Diamond Kings

Card number 153

Standard Version: (7)

Bronze Version: (1)

Silver Version: (3) serial numbered to 250. I currently have #'s 101, 150, and 170

Gold Version: (1) serial numbered 042/100

2002 Upper Deck Sweet Spot

My last post was talking about all the crap cards that were produced and the redundancy of sets in the market. Well this is a set that I kind of like and I cant explain why. The foil hologram on the front and the design of the card just gives it a great feel.

2002 Upper Deck Sweet Spot

Card #116

Standard Version: (5) serial numbered to 1300. I currently have #'s 0059 (his jersey number at the time), 0466, 0668, 0730, 1261

2002 Upper Deck Diamond Connection

Is it just me or is it right around this time that companies started putting out WAY too many sets. I love the variety - don't get me wrong - but some of these sets are just redundant. They don't even look nice or have great photography. They are really just the byproduct of the license to print money that Upper Deck and Topps have! This is another pointless issue - but it had another serial numbers Ollie card - so I have some. The Oliver Perez card was part of the same release as the SPx Auto card. It came in the rookies and updates boxes.


2002 Upper Deck Diamon Connection
Card# 153


Standard Version: (8) Serial numbered XXXX/1500. I currently have #'s 0035, 0091, 0327, 0446, 0563, 1064, 1308, 1320

2002 Upper Deck SP Authentic

I don't know why, but for some stange reason I really don't like this card. There is too much white border, and the card just doesn't look good to me. Anywho I have a few of these....

2002 SP Authentic

Card #120

Standard Version: (6) Serial numbered XXXX/1999 - I currently have #'s 0250, 0528, 0611, 0782, 1467, 1976

Limited Version: (3) Serial numbered XXX/125 - I currently have #'s 013, 038, 096

Gold Limited Version (2) Serial numbers XX/50 - I currently have #'s 39 and 50

Typos

Yes I am aware there are typos - and I have mentioned this before. Blogger is kind of pissing me off at the moment though. I type "Serial Numbered" and "Serial Numbers" is what shows up every time. I dont know if it is an auto spell check our what. Maybe me putting the quotes in this post will make it work!

2008 Oliver Perez Predictions

As I have posted before, I am a fantasy baseball addict. I play on a few sites - but the one that holds my interest the best, and the one I enjoy the most is sandbox.com. I play in a roto league, and 3 head to head leagues there. It is a lot of fun. 2 of the H2H leagues are keep leagues that have been together since the site went to a paid format 5-6 years ago - and the basis of the league was together for 3-4 years before that.

That site has a pretty good forum/community for people to discuss fantasy and real sports. Last year - I was predicting great things for Ollie, and I started a discussion on his prospects for 2007. There were some arguments and some good discussion - and the thread turned into the official prediction thread for 2007.

My prediction was pretty good. Although I threw a bunch of ideas around - my official prediction was not bad. I guessed 17-8, 3.96 ERA, 17.8fppg. I also threw out some other numbers - but those were the official stats we were predicting. With Ollie finishing at 15-10 with a 3.56ERA and 16.8FPPG - I was pretty close.

You can read the thread here: http://usatoday.sandbox.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=37349

Well - I have started the offical 2008 thread, and made my predictions. If you play Sandbox you should log in and post your thoughts. Or just use the comments section here to make fun of mine!

My predictions for 2008 are as follows:

Wins: 19
Losses: 8
IP: 202
K: 219
BB: 69
WHIP: 1.21
ERA: 3.11
PPG: 19.8

You can read the full thread here: http://usatoday.sandbox.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=41648

Todays Posts

Well thats about all for today. I have a bunch of cards left from his 2002 rookies - in fact that is about all I will be posting as that is all I care about ...

I should be done by the end of the week - then it is time to start posting about real stuff.

Have a great night!!!!

2002 Donruss Studio

Donruss Studio is another stupidly redundant set. It was cool in the early 90's when the first set came out - you know the one - purple border with black and white portraits of each player. For some reason the Kirby Pucket card from that set is the one that sticks out in my mind. Maybe he was on the box or something - who knows!

2002 Donruss Studio

Card #270

Standard Version: (3) - each serial numbered XXXX/1500. I currently own #'s 0139, 0157, and 0747

Studio Proof Version: (2) - each serial numbered XXX/100. I currently have #'s 012 and 100

Private Signings Version: (1) - serial numbers 23/25

2002 Donruss Classics

2002 Donruss Classics might be my favorite set for 2002. I dont know why - maybe it is because of the "classic" feel. It reminds me of the cards I first started collecting in the mid 80's. Not a replica like so many other rip-off brands are out now. It is a new design with an older feel. I dont know why - I just like it. For some reason I think I remember there being more versions of this card - but I only have 2:

2002 Donruss Classics

Card #201

Standard Version: (6) serial numbers to 1500. I currently have#'s: 1174, 1198, 1295, 1311, 1437, 1459

Significant Signatures Version: (1) Autographed card with a serial number 19/50

2002 Donruss Fan Club

This is a set that I do not remember being on the shelves, and how it is organized is really strange to me. I still haven't been able to figure out what the best of, credits, spotlight ... etc was or how it was released. Never the less - I have a bunch of these!

200 Donruss Fan Club

Card #202

Standard Version - (0) - I do not know if this card exists. I haven't had a price guide, or the urge to look it up. If anyone has one let me know - I will buy or trade!

Credits Version - (2) - this one is serial numbers to 100. I have 083/100 and 089/100

Auto Version - (1) - there is no serial number on this card, but I am told that there are only 25 in existance. I haven't seen any on eBay except this one that I bought so it makes sense.

Best of Fan Club - (9) - These cards are serial numbers to 1350. They are pretty much the same as the fan club cards only are metallic. I have: XXXX/1350: 0140, 0581, 1157, 1158, 1165, 1185, 1287, 1327, 1338

Best of Fan Club Spotlight - (1) - same as above really only these have the word Spotlight on the top and are serial numbers to 100. I have# 074/100

2002 Donruss Elite

The 2002 Donruss Elite series was a very nice looking set. The cards are metallic, the photography is nice, and there are some great cards. Ollies card shows the arm angle he had when he was throwing strikes and dominating - not the one where he turns his body and shoots ball after ball.

The are only 1000 in existance, the ones with a serial number 25 or under are autographed - making this one of his rarest rookies. numbers 26-100 are die cut, and numbers 101-1000 are the standard version.

2002 Donruss Elite Extra Edition
Card #212

Standard Version - (21) with serial numbers: XXXX/1000 - 115, 140, 173, 252, 328, 348, 371, 380, 437, 547, 587, 609, 605, 714, 735, 741, 776, 788, 805, 861, 894

Turn of the Century die Cut version - (1) with serial number 0028/1000

Turn of the Century Autographed Version - (1) with serial number 0010/1000