About a week ago I did an analysis on Ollie's first half, and compared it to the league average. The numbers I pulled from were from ESPN's league totals section. I do not think it fairly represents 'average though' as it includes all the relievers, the rookies who came up for one start ... etc. So I decided to redo the numbers using only the pitchers who currently qualify for the league ERA title. I figured this would be the list of full time starters for at least most of the season. This should be a more accurate view of how he has compared to an average national league starter before the all-str break in 2008:
Now the change in Ollies mechanics may have helped him turn the corner as his last 3 starts have been much better. Lets look at the numbers:
Games Started - Right on key with average
IP and IP/Start - Ollie had 2 starts that bring his average way down, but even without those his longevity in each game is a major concern so far.
W/L and Win% - His winning percentage is a little better than average, but obviously a 2 or 3 starter should be better here. Wins and losses are probably the most useless stat in comparing pitchers as it depends on so many factors ... run support, bullpen ... etc.
The rest of the stats with the exception of Hits/9 and K/9 he is well below average. These numbers are fairly startling. (I did think the unearned runs per 9 would be much worse)
All-in-all it really looks like Ollie has been a below average pitcher so far this year. If the Mets want to make it to the post season they will need Ollie to continue what he has shown in his last 3 starts (minus the walks in the last start).
Good luck in the second half.
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