Monthly Post

Here it is a month later, and still no posts. I guess there just hasn't been much to talk about.


The Mets bullpen sucks. Ollie hasn't been that dominant since shaving the beard.


But just in case the Mets need any more reason to callapse again this year, I was selected to buy NLDS tickets. I was selected for NLCS tickets last year and look where that got me!!!

Pitcher of the Second Half - as of August18

I think this debate is over before it even begins ... as CC Sabathia has pretty much torn through the NL since moving to Milwaukee.

But I guess I would love to see some numbers of who in MLB have been the best pitchers in the second half (not since the all-star break, but after most teams hit 81 games. Since I am in NY and I have a NY Bias I will use the Yankees schedule and use the date that they played their 81st game as the starting point for this conversation: The Yankees Played their 81st game of the season on June 28th - so I will use that day as the start of the second half.

I feel that Wins and Losses are irrelavent as they have more to do with run support and how will the opposing pitcher pitches - so they are out of my equation. Here is how I score the pitchers:

((3 x IP) + K - BB - H - ER)

A few thoughts:

Only Roy Halladay is on the list from AL

Tim Lincecum not only had a great first half, but is kicking ass in the second half too. He is my pick for NL Cy Young even though only Brandon Webb will probably eclipse the 20 win mark.

The Mets have 2 pitchers on the list in Santana and Perez. They were my preseason picks for NL Cy Young - and the second half has really shown they have the ability. It makes me thiunk back to good old 2004 when these 2 were the talk of baseball as young pitchers. Santana has lived up to the hype. Although I still think I am the biggest Ollie fan out there, I am not ready to say he has performed - but by the looks of things he is on his way.

Comparing Oliver Perez to the NL Average Starter before the All-Star Break

About a week ago I did an analysis on Ollie's first half, and compared it to the league average. The numbers I pulled from were from ESPN's league totals section. I do not think it fairly represents 'average though' as it includes all the relievers, the rookies who came up for one start ... etc. So I decided to redo the numbers using only the pitchers who currently qualify for the league ERA title. I figured this would be the list of full time starters for at least most of the season. This should be a more accurate view of how he has compared to an average national league starter before the all-str break in 2008:

As you can see from the numbers above, the comparison to the actual average of the real full time starters does not paint as good of a picture as the comparison to the league as a whole.

Now the change in Ollies mechanics may have helped him turn the corner as his last 3 starts have been much better. Lets look at the numbers:

Games Started - Right on key with average
IP and IP/Start - Ollie had 2 starts that bring his average way down, but even without those his longevity in each game is a major concern so far.
W/L and Win% - His winning percentage is a little better than average, but obviously a 2 or 3 starter should be better here. Wins and losses are probably the most useless stat in comparing pitchers as it depends on so many factors ... run support, bullpen ... etc.

The rest of the stats with the exception of Hits/9 and K/9 he is well below average. These numbers are fairly startling. (I did think the unearned runs per 9 would be much worse)

All-in-all it really looks like Ollie has been a below average pitcher so far this year. If the Mets want to make it to the post season they will need Ollie to continue what he has shown in his last 3 starts (minus the walks in the last start).

Good luck in the second half.

Olliver Perez Collection Update

Since Ollie has been doing his best Victor Zambrano impression so far this year, I have had the opportunity to pick up a bunch of additions to my collection on the relative cheap! Actually REAL cheap. It will either bring down the average cost per card I have and help me dollar cost average the investment for maximum profit, or it will just be a few more dollars I have thrown into worthless cardboard.

Lets hope the renewed confidence and wind-up help as much as I think it will!

Here are some cards I have added recently:

2002 Leaf Rookies and Stars AU (NNO/175)
2002 Donruss Fan Club Credits (036/100)
2002 Bowman Chrome Draft Picks BGS 9
2002 Bowman Chrome Draft Picks Refractor (X2) (163/300 and 286/300)
2002 Bowman Chrome Draft Picks XFractor (046/150)
2002 Bowman Chrome Draft Picks Gold Refractor BGS 8.5 (29/50)
2002 SPX AU (690/825)
2002 Donruss Elite Extra Edition Turn of the Century (X2)(XX/75)(0027/1000 and PSA9 0078/1000)

I have also purchased a 2002 UD Victory card which I haven't yet received and was paid for almost 3 weeks ago, another 2002 Upper Deck Ultimate Collection that was paid for about 4-5 days ago but have not yet received, and the ones that has upset me the most:

another 2002 Bowman Chrome Gold Refractor. The seller claims his son bent the card and I should decide what I want to do. I got the card for cheap enough where I might still want it, but still it is upsetting. I may just ask for a refund. That has to bode well for his other gold refractors though. If one was destroyed - then only 49 reamin in good condition.

I have a pretty high percentage of the total of all of Olivers Rookie cards. This brings me back to thr though of what would happen to the percieved value of his cards if my house burned down. I mean if I own about 5% of all of his cards in existance and they all suddenly were destroyed wouldn't that be similar to say the Honus wagner card that is worth so much because of the recall?

Metsblog and their mid-season grades ...

Metsblog.com is currently doing a great piece asking the fans to give each of the players on the team a mid-season grade. The results are sometimes comical as many of the outspoken metsfans have pretty much lost all faith in their team. Seeing Johan Santana get a vote for an F for instance his comical as even after a low first half he is still one of the best pitchers in the game ...

Here is the link to their current piece on Ollie:

http://www.metsblog.com/2008/07/01/poll-mid-season-grade-for-oliver-perez/#comment-236958

As of this moment, Ollie has received a C with 51% of the votes and a smattering of other choices. I too voted a C. In the comment section I voiced my reasoning:

Comment by gutterkizmet
2008-07-01 14:39:23
I am still probably the biggest Ollie Fan out there - I have the olliverperezfan site to prove it - that being said:
I gave him a C - probably higher than he deserved, but even in school your are graded on the final exam more heavily than the breadth of the entire work - what have you done for me lately.

If you look back through the posts you will see I predicted the great start against the Yankees - mostly because of their lefty centric line-up. The Yanks sat most of their lefty’s and he still pitched lights out - being the reason I gave him a C instead of a D. (I predicted he would do great and the Mets would immediately offer him to the Yankees for some MLB ready talent as they Steinbrenners use the “if you can’t beat em, buy em philosophy”

The change in his wind-up with the back and forth instead of right to left, combined with the hitch at his belt, and the center of the rubber thing might end up being the fix he needs. The confidence he displayed on the mound with the K of ARod and others made me a believer again.

Isn’t a VORP around 0 basically saying he is league average? Isn’t average a C?

Anyway his stuff and his latest outing give him a C. His next outing against the Phillies will determine his final grade though:

Great outing with 0 or 1 walk and 0-1 ER will push him up to a B.
Outing with 0-2 walks and 2-3 ER will keep him at a C (Hitter friendly park)
Any more than 2-3 walks will push him to a D
If his fastball goes back to 89-91 will probably make him a D too
A Shelling will make him an F and probable tradebait or minor leaguer.

Then I also added this:

Comment by gutterkizmet
2008-07-01 14:57:03
BTW - I still say C average considering what I just looked at:

National League Average:
ERA: 4.24 (Ollie: 4.96)
W/L%: .500 (Ollie .545)
K/9: 6.8 (Ollie 7.6)
BB/9: 3.5 (Ollie 5.1)
WHIP: 1.40 (Ollie 1.47)
BAA .262 (Ollie .243)

He is a little worse than avg in ERA
He is a little better in Win%
He is much better in K/9
He is MUCH worse in BB/9
His WHIP is withing a standard deviation of AVG.
His BAA is better than AVG.

All in all - if his new motion can give him better control than he will be much better than AVG - but for the first half I would say he looks like the average pitcher. Perfect for a 3-4 slot guy, great for a #5 - with the potential to be much much better.

What do you think?

Great Outing Against the Yankees and Collection Update

Yes, I am still the worst blogger of all-time.

Great outing against the Yanks with the new windup. A little crazy still from the stretch.

A bunh more cards including another gold refractor. I will post scans soon ...

Worst Blogger ... ever!

When I started this blog, it was supposed to be a spot to share my thoughts on baseball and card collecting in general, along with views on Oliver Perez and his performance.

I have failed miserably due to heavy stuff at work and at home. Lets see if I can start over with some information.

In case you missed them - Oliver has stunk since my last post. OK, not stunk - but he hasn't been very good. He has reverted to the old Ollie - dropping arm angles and being wild. Last start he had 8 count em 8 walks! He has hit more batters than I care to mention...

Luckily enough he has shown some resiliency in getting out of jams. Left handed hitters might as well go to the plate with a blindfold on, and he has been keeping the team in the games.

I will post the box scores in my next post ...

Collection Update

Just picked these 2 up for stupidly cheap. Hopefully Ollie will continue his 0 earned run trends for a few more outings. If he can do that it might be time to try and flip some of his cards to recoup some of my investment. If I can do that and get to even or close to it with just a few cards - I could have the rest free and clear and root by being a fan instead of just with my wallet!

2002 Upper Deck SPX, Card# 235 Auto

#690/825 (bringing my total of this card to 16 out of the 825)

2002 Bowman Chrome Draft, Card #BDP113, Refractor

#163/300 (bringing my total to 9 of the 300)

Sorry for the bad image. Something is wrong with the camera in my phone when used with the office lighting.

Game Day Log - Start #2 - Against the Phillies in NY - The Final Home Opener at Shea

Well this one is only a few days late. Hopefully I will be more timely in the future and add some of the other pieces I wanted to add. The is the second straight start I missed being able to watch. This one because it was a day game, and I was on a plane going from Ohio back to Albany after some business meetings.

4/12/08

In the final home opener at Shea - the Mets bullpen ruined the day for both Ollie and the Mets. The Mets lost 5-3 after another solid outing by Ollie.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=280408121

Ollie goes 5.2, again allowing 0 runs, and no extra base hits. From what I could tell, and what I have read - Ollie was not quite as sharp today as he was in FL last week - but he still shut the Phillies down. He did walk a few more, but from the pitch by pitch recap from the game log - some of the balls could have been called strikes based on their location on the system. Ollie left the game with 2 outs in the 5th. He got 2 quick outs, but then a walk, then a balk, then another walk. He did a great job maintaining his composure under presseure all-day but with a pitch count of 95, Willie decided to take hom out before a blow up. Out of the inning without any damage. The bullpen ruined the rest. On the bright side - Ollie did hit chase Utley 2 times, and the Pen hit him again. Teach that fu(&er to move off the plate a little!

Ollies Line: 5.2IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 2 K, 0 R, 0 ER

Fantasy Stats YTD: 1 Win, 0.00 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 10 K, Sandbox: 20.5ppg

Game Day Log - Start #1 - Against the Marlins in FL - a Week late!

Here I am, being one of the worst bloggers AGAIN. I have all these great plans on what I am going to post about - yet I am either too busy, or too lazy to actually post what I plan!

Hopefully these posts will get more in-depth as the season rolls along, but for now this will have to do.

4/2/2008

Oliver dominated the Marlins, striking out 8 in 6 IP, allowing no runs, no extra base hits, and walking one. This line looked like this:

6IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

Fantasy Stats to date: 1 Win, 1.00 WHIP, 8 K, 0.00 ERA - Sandbox - 30.0 PPG

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=280402128

I didn't get to watch the game in person, as it was one of my last bowling nights of the year, but I did watch most of it on the gamecase on my Sprint HTC touch phone. That feature is actually pretty cool as it allows me to see where all of the pitches were, the type of pitch, and the speed.

Ollie was in the low 90's, he hit 94/95 a few times - but seemed to be relying on his fastball low and away on almost every pitch. He rarely mixed in his slider and curve - but when he did I can imagine how hard it must have been for the hitters to react. If the mets weren't up by 11 he probably would have went deeper into the game, but the 93 pitches he threw probably had something to do with it as well.